Friday, September 5th, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.35%) this morning are down -0.36% and European stocks are down -0.41% ahead of this morning's U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls. Losses in European stocks were limited after German Jul industrial production rose more than expected by the most in 2-1/3 years. Also, Ukraine President Poroshenko voiced "careful optimism" that talks today with pro-Russian rebels will set the course for a cease-fire. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.05%, Hong Kong -0.23%, China +0.95%, Taiwan -0.22%, Australia -0.58%, Singapore -0.14%, South Korea -0.42%, India -0.22%. China's Shanghai Stock Index bucked the trend of lower Asian equity markets and rose for a sixth day to its highest in 1-1/4 years amid speculation the government is boosting measures to support the economy. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Oct crude oil (CLV14 +0.03%) is up +0.31%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.73%) is up +0.77%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.02%) is down -0.01. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.13%) is up +0.17% on signs of tighter global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories fell -5,442 MT to 74,336 MT, a 2-3/4 year low. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher with Oct hogs up +1.44% at a 1-month high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.04%) are down -1.5 ticks.Speaking late Thursday in New York, Fed Governor Powell said the U.S. labor market has "improved substantially" and that "significant parts" of the FOMC statement need to change.
German Jul industrial production rose +1.9% m/m, more than four times expectations of +0.4% m/m and the largest monthly increase in 2-1/3 years. On an annual basis, Jul industrial production rose +2.5% y/y, much better than expectations of +0.6% y/y.
The Japan Jul leading index CI rose +0.6 to 106.5, less than expectations of +1.2 to 107.1. The Jul coincident index rose +0.2 to 109.9, less than expectations of +0.4 to 110.1.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The market is expecting today’s August U.S. unemployment report to show another month of relatively strong labor market growth. The market consensus is that Aug payroll report will show an increase of +225,000, improving slightly from +209,000 in July. There are no Russell 1000 companies that report earings today: (consensus: n/a).Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Back to School Conference on Wed-Fri and the Vertical Research Partners Industrial Conference on Wed-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Wynn Resorts (WYNN -0.26%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.Credit Suisse (CS -1.05%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Google (GOOG +0.70%) was added to the 'Conviction Buy List' at Evercore who raised their price target on the stock to $750 from $725.
British Petroleum (BP -5.91%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
The Gap (GPS +0.58%) fell over 6% in pre-market trading after it reported Aug same-store-sales unexpectedly fell -2.0% in Aug, weaker than expectations for a +1.7% increase.
Parker-Hannifin (PH +1.41%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $135.
Celgene (CELG -1.06%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust with a price target of $121.
Allergan (AGN -0.44%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at ISI Group with a price target of $207.
Steelhead Partners reported a 6.8% passive stake in Endeavour (END -1.75%) .
Stone Point Capital reported a 7.4% stake in Yadkin Financial (YDKN +0.48%) .
Cooper Companies (COO -0.21%) reported Q3 EPS $of 1.90, right on consensus, but then raised guidance on 2014 EPS view to $7.34-$7.44 from $6.80-$7.00, well above consensus of $6.84.
NVIDIA (NVDA +1.78%) filed a patent infringement complaint against Qualcomm (QCOM +0.29%) and Samsung (SSNLF -2.54%) that alleges the companies are both infringing NVIDIA GPU patents covering technology including programmable shading, unified shaders and multithreaded parallel processing.
Esterline (ESL +0.04%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items $1.38, less than consensus of $1.40, although Q3 revenue of $531.1 million was higher than consensus of $516.57 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.35%) this morning are down -7.25 points (-0.36%). The S&P 500 Index on Thursday fell back from a record high and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.15%, Dow Jones -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.12%. Negative factors included (1) the +204,000 increase in the Aug ADP employment change, less than expectations of +220,000 and (2) profit-taking and long liquidation ahead of Friday's all-important Aug employment report. Supportive factors included (1) the unexpected action by the ECB to cut interest rates to record lows and its plan to implement quantitative easing starting next month, (2) the unexpected +0.9 point increase in the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index to 59.6, better than expectations of -1.0 to 57.7 and the fastest pace of expansion in 9 years.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.04%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index to its fastest pace of expansion in 9 years, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which curbs safe-haven demand for T-notes. Closes: TYZ4 -8.00, FVZ4 -3.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.09%) this morning is down -0.053 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0008 (+0.06%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06 (-0.06%). The dollar index on Thursday surged to a 13-1/2 month high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) signs of U.S. economic strength after the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace of growth in 9 years, and (2) the plunge in EUR/USD to a 13-1/2 month low after the ECB unexpectedly cut all three of its interest rates by 10 bp and after ECB President Draghi said the ECB will begin buying "a broad portfolio" of asset-backed securities starting next month. Closes: Dollar index +0.955 (+1.15%), EUR/USD -0.0206 (-1.57%), USD/JPY +0.481 (+0.46%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 +0.03%) this morning is up +29 cents (+0.31%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.73%) is up +0.0201 (+0.77%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLV4 -1.09 (-1.14%), RBV4 -0.0172 (-0.66%). Negative factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 13-1/2 month high, and (2) speculation that scheduled autumn U.S. refinery maintenance will reduce refinery demand for crude. Losses were limited after (1) weekly EIA crude supplies fell -905,000 bbl to a 7-month low, and (2) the -2.3 million bb drop in EIA gasoline stockpiles to a 9-1/2 month low.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/05/2014
| US | 0830 ET | Aug non-farm payrolls expected +225,000, Jul +209,000. Aug private payrolls expected +210,000, Jul +198,000. Aug manufacturing payrolls expected +15,000, Jul +28,000. Aug unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 6.1%, Jul +0.1 to 6.2%. |
| 0830 ET | Aug avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Jul unch m/m and +2.0% y/y. Aug avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.5. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 1545 ET | Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at the Vermont Bankers Associations annual conference. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Japan Jul leading index CI expected +1.2 to 107.1, Jun 105.9. Jul coincident index expected +0.4 to 110.1, Jun 109.7. |
| GER | 0200 ET | German Jul industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Jun +0.3% m/m and -0.5% y/y. |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Q2 GDP, previous unch q/q and +0.7% y/y. |
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