Tuesday, April 1st, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.27% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up +0.71% on reduced geopolitical risks after Russian President Putin told German Chancellor Merkel that he ordered a partial troop pullout of troops from near Ukraine's border. European stocks also benefited from a decline in German unemployment for a fourth month as the German Mar unemployment rate remained at a two decade low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong +1.34%, China +0.78%, Taiwan +0.27%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.33%, India +0.27%. Chinese stocks closed higher after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity last month unexpectedly rose, while Japanese stocks fell after Japan's Q1 Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers rose less than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 -0.29%) is down -0.32%. May gasoline (RBK14 -0.22%) is down -0.25%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.01%) is up +0.12%. May copper (HGK14 -0.13%) is down -0.02%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although May soybeans are up +1.14% at a 6-1/2 month nearest-futures high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -3.5 ticks.The German Mar unemployment change fell -12,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -10,000. The Mar unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% from a downward revised 6.7% in Feb that was originally reported at 6.8%. The 6.7% unemployment rate is the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
The Eurozone Feb unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.9% from a downward revised reading in Jan of 11.9% that was originally reported at 12.0%.
The Japan Q1 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions rose +1 point to 17, less than expectations of +3 to 19, but still the best level in 6-1/4 years.
Japan Feb labor cash earnings were unchanged y/y, better than expectations of -0.1% y/y.
The China Mar manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 50.3, better than expectations of -0.1 to 50.1.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s March ISM manufacturing index is expected to show an increase of +0.8 to 54.0, adding to the +1.9 point increase to 53.2 seen in February. Today’s March total vehicle sales report is expected to improve to 15.80 million units from 15.27 million units in February. There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Apollo Education (consensus $0.19), and Tech Data Corp (1.93). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Pacific Crest Future Technology Investor Forum on Wed, Wolfe Research Power Gas Deep Dive Conference on Wed, Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Utilities Conference on Wed, Pacific Crest Future Technology Investor Forum on Wed, Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Wed-Thu, HSBC Real Estate Conference on Thu, and Wells Fargo Tech Transformation Summit on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
According to Beverage Digest, U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks shrank 1% to $76.3 billion in 2013, representing the first downturn in dollar terms in at least 15 years, with soda volumes shrinking an estimated 3% last year, the ninth straight year of contraction. Beverage makers include Coca-Cola (KO -0.74%) , PepsiCo (PEP +0.66%) , Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS +0.95%) , Monster Beverage (MNST -0.06%) and Starbucks (SBUX -0.43%) .Potash (POT +1.86%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Cantor.
Oasis Petroleum (OAS -0.74%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
United Continental (UAL +3.89%) and LabCorp (LH +0.17%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
MetLife (MET +0.46%) was added to the U.S. 1 List at BofA/Merrill.
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII +2.36%) said it received a $497 million government contract from the U.S. Coast Guard to build a seventh Legend-class National Security Cutter.
Crown Cork & Seal Company reported a 11.6% passive stake in AEP Industries (AEPI +0.98%) .
Strategic Value Partners reported a 9.4% passive stake in Genco Shipping (GNK +4.14%) .
Ionic Capital reported a 5.08% passive stake in LIN Media (LIN +0.72%) .
GLG Partners reported a 7.46% passive stake in Emerald Oil (EOX +0.15%) .
General Motors (GM -0.89%) said it will take a Q1 charge of up to $750 million for recall-related repairs.
Gabelli reported a 5.42% stake in BioScrip (BIOS +3.41%) .
Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.12%) failed to win dismissal of shareholder securities fraud lawsuit over "London whale" losses.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.23%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.27%) at a 1-week high. The S&P 500 on Monday settled higher. Supportive factors included (1) reduced geopolitical risks after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the U.S. and Russia agree on the need for a diplomatic solution to tensions over Ukraine, and (2) dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said that “considerable slack” in the labor market is evidence that the Fed’s extraordinary accommodation will be needed for “some time.” Closes: S&P 500 +0.79, Dow Jones +0.82%, Nasdaq +0.68%.Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices Monday closed slightly lower. Strength in stocks reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries, but that was offset by the weaker-than-expected Mar Chicago PMI and from dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the Fed’s extraordinary accommodation will be needed for “some time.” Closes: TYM4 -2.00, FVM4 +2.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.023 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower after dovish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said the U.S. economy will need support for “some time.” The dollar remained in negative territory after the Mar Chicago PMI slipped to its slowest pace of expansion in 7 months. USD/JPY rose to a 2-1/2 week high on reduced safe-haven demand for the yen as stocks rallied. Closes: Dollar index -0.076 (-0.09%), EUR/USD +0.00171 (+0.12%), USD/JPY +0.406 (+0.39%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 -0.29%) this morning is down -32 cents (-0.32%) and May gasoline (RBK14 -0.22%) is down -0.0072 (-0.25%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower. An easing of geopolitical tensions undercut crude prices after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the U.S. and Russia agree on the need for a diplomatic solution to tensions over Ukraine. Losses were limited as stocks rose and the dollar weakened after Fed Chair Yellen said that extraordinary accommodation will still be needed for “some time.” Closes: CLK4 -0.09 (-0.09%). RBK4 -0.0188 (-0.64%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/01/2014
| US | 0945 ET | Revised Mar Markit manufacturing PMI expected 55.9, previous -1.6 to 55.5. |
| 1000 ET | Mar ISM manufacturing expected +0.8 to 54.0, Feb +1.9 to 53.2. Mar new orders index, Feb +3.3 to 54.5. Mar ISM prices paid expected -0.5 to 59.5, Feb -0.5 to 60.0. | |
| 1000 ET | Feb construction spending expected +0.1%, Jan +0.1% m/m. | |
| 1700 ET | Mar total vehicle sales expected 15.80 million, Feb 15.27 million. Mar domestic vehicle sales expected 12.40 million, Feb 11.98 million. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Japan Mar vehicle sales, Feb +15.0% y/y. |
| GER | 0355 ET | German Mar unemployment change expected -10,000, Feb -14,000. Mar unemployment rate expected unch at 6.8%. |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Feb unemployment rate expected unch at 12.0%. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/01/2014
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Motor Co | F US | 4/1/2014 | March 2014 Sales and Revenue Call | 2014 | |
| Ford Motor Co | F US | 4/1/2014 | March 2014 Sales and Revenue Release | 2014 | |
| General Motors Co | GM US | 4/1/2014 | GM Testifies on Vehicle Recalls | ||
| Regal Entertainment Group | RGC US | 4/1/2014 | Ascendiant Quarterly Management Discussion Series | ||
| Apollo Education Group Inc | APOL US | 4/1/2014 | Q2 2014 Earnings Call | Q2 2014 | |
| Apollo Education Group Inc | APOL US | 4/1/2014 | Q2 2014 Earnings Release | Q2 2014 | 0.191 |
| Tech Data Corp | TECD US | 4/1/2014 | Q4 2014 Earnings Release | Q4 2014 | 1.933 |
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