Wednesday, January 22, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/22

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.04%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.19% as IBM and Texas Instruments slid in pre-market trading. Asian stocks closed mostly higher on a fall in Chinese money-market rates: Japan +0.16%, Hong Kong +0.21%, China +2.58%, Taiwan +0.30%, Australia -0.22%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea +0.29%, India +0.41%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 1-1/2 week high after China's benchmark money-market rates fell for a second day as the PBOC made more funding available for smaller lenders. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.42%) is up +0.52% at a 2-week high on positive carry-over from the IEA's action Tuesday to hike its 2014 global crude oil consumption forecast. Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.32%) is up +0.68%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.07%) is down -0.06%. March copper (HGH14 -0.79%) is down -0.58%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 unch) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04%. The British pound rose to a 2-week high against the dollar after the UK Nov unemployment rate fell more than expected to a 4-3/4 year low. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.25%) are down -8 ticks.
The minutes of the Jan-9 BOE policy meeting stated that the MPC "saw no immediate need to raise the bank rate even if the 7.0% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future" as cost pressures were "subdued" and headwinds to growth "would persist for some time."
UK Dec jobless claims change fell -24,000, less than expectations of -32,000. The Dec claimant count rate was 3.7%, right on expectations and the lowest in 5-years.
The UK Nov ILO unemployment rate fell -0.3 to 7.1% in the 3-months through Nov, better than expectations of -0.1 to 7.3% and the lowest in 4-3/4 years.
UK Nov avg weekly earnings rose +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y, less than expectations of +1.0% 3-mo avg y/y. Nov weekly earnings ex-bonus also rose +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y, less than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
UK Dec public sector net borrowing climbed +10.4 billion pounds, less than expectations of +12.0 billion pounds.
The Japan Nov leading index CI was revised upward to a 6-1/2 year high of 111.1 from the originally reported 110.8. The Nov coincident index was revised upward to a 5-1/3 year high of 110.7 from the originally reported 110.5.
The Japan Nov all-industry activity index rose +0.3% m/m, right on expectations, although Oct was revised down to -0.4% m/m from the originally reported -0.2% m/m.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
There are no major U.S. economic reports today. There are 25 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include: eBay (consensus $0.80), Northern Trust (0.75), US Bancorp (0.75), United Technologies (1.53), Textron (0.59), Abbott Labs (0.58), Coach (1.11), St. Jude Medical (0.99), Noble (0.81), and Progressive (0.42).
There are 13 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including IBM (consensus $6.00), Texas Instruments (0.46), Halliburton (0.89), Baker Hughes (0.61), Johnson & Johnson (1.20), Verizon (0.65), Rockwell Collins (0.94), Travelers (2.15).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: World Future Energy Summit on Tue-Wed, 13th Annual Pharma Contact Centers Conference on Wed-Thu, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2014 on Wed-Thu, and SMi Social Media in the Pharmaceutical Industry on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Mosaic (MOS -0.45%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman.
Motorola Solutions (MSI +1.53%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.67, stronger than consensus of $1.62.
United Technologies (UTX +0.68%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.58, higher than consensus of $1.53.
Textron (TXT unch) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 59 cents.
Coach (COH -0.02%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.06, below consensus of $1.11.
Allegheny Technologies (ATI -5.84%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -8 cents, better than expectations of a -21 cent loss.
Texas Instruments (TXN +0.92%) fell over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 46 cents with items, right on consensus, but then said it sees Q1 EPS of 36 cents-44 cents, below consensus of 44 cents.
Xilinx (XLNX +0.68%) reported Q3 EPS of 61 cents, stronger than consensus of 54 cents.
Nuance (NUAN -0.87%) rose 9% in after-hours trading after it raised its Q1 adjusted EPS view to 23 cents-24 cents from 18 cents-21 cents, better than consensus of 20 cents.
Cree (CREE +0.53%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported adjusted Q2 EPS of 46 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.
IBM (IBM -0.87%) slid nealy 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $6.13, higher than consensus $5.99, and said it sees 2014 EPS at least $18.00, better than consensus of $17.97. However, IBM said revenue declined to $27.7 billion in the 3-months throgh Dec amid plunging demand for servers, the seventh consecutive quarter revenue has declined.
Bob Evans (BOBE +0.04%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it cut its fiscal 2014 EPS outlook to $2.20-$2.30, well below consensus of $2.57.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 -0.04%) this morning are down -1.75 points (-0.10%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher after the IMF raised its 2014 global GDP forecast to 3.7% from an Oct estimate of 3.6% along with carry-over support from a rally in Chinese stocks after the PBOC added funds to the financial system in an attempt to lower China's money-market rates. Stocks fell back from their best levels on weak Q4 earnings results from Johnson & Johnson and Verizon. Closes: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow Jones -0.27%, Nasdaq 100 +0.74%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.25%) this morning aredown -8 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday moved lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the IMF raised their 2014 global GDP forecast, but a slide in stocks from their best levels pulled T-notes off of their lows and they finished just slightly lower. Closes: TYH4 -1.5, FVH4 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 unch) this morning is down -0.019 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.04 (+0.04%). The dollar index on Tuesday posted a 2-1/4 month high on speculation the Fed will continue to taper QE3 after the IMF raised their 2014 global GDP forecast. The dollar fell back, however, and closed lower after EUR/USD recovered early losses and moved higher when ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said his "personal view" is that the ECB could raise its Eurozone growth forecasts higher in March. Closes: Dollar index -0.127 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.0022 (+0.16%), USD/JPY +0.057 (+0.05%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.42%) this morning is up +49 cents (+0.52%) at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline (RBH14 +0.32%) is up +0.0179 (+0.68%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed higher with Mar crude at a 2-week high and Mar gasoline at a 1-week high after the IEA raised its 2014 global oil demand forecast by +90,000 bpd from last month to a record 92.5 million bpd and after the IMF raised its 2014 global GDP forecast to 3.7% from an Oct estimate of 3.6%. Closes: CLH4 +0.38 (+0.40%), RBH4 +0.0025 (+0.10%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/22/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +11.9% with purchase sub-index +11.5% and the refi sub-index +11.2%.
1500 ETDec USDA Cold Storage.
JPN0000 ETRevised Japan Nov leading index CI, previous 110.8. Revised Nov coincident index, previous 110.5.
n/aBOJ announces interest rate decision.
UK0430 ETUK Dec jobless claims change expected -32,000, Nov -36,700. Dec claimant count rate expected 3.7%, Nov 3.8%.
0430 ETUK Nov avg weekly earnings expected +1.0% 3-mo avg y/y, Oct +0.9% 3-mo avg y/y. Nov weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.0% 3-mo avg y/y, Oct +0.8% 3-mo avg y/y.
0430 ETUK Nov ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.3% 3-months, Oct 7.4% 3-months.
0430 ETUK Dec public sector net borrowing expected +12.0 billion pounds, Nov +14.8 billion pounds.
0430 ETMinutes of the Jan 8-9 BOE policy meeting.
CHI2045 ETChina Jan HSBC/market flash manufacturing PMI expected -0.2 to 50.3, Dec -0.3 to 50.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/22/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Abbott LaboratoriesABT USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.582
Parker Hannifin CorpPH USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.245
Allegheny Technologies IncATI USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2013-0.211
Textron IncTXT USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.592
United Technologies CorpUTX USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.53
General Dynamics CorpGD USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.754
Northern Trust CorpNTRS USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.746
US Bancorp/MNUSB USBef-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.748
TE Connectivity LtdTEL US6:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.769
Motorola Solutions IncMSI US7:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.619
Coach IncCOH US7:00Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20141.109
St Jude Medical IncSTJ US7:30Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.988
Motorola Solutions IncMSI US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.506
Textron IncTXT US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold IncFCX US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.798
St Jude Medical IncSTJ US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Amphenol CorpAPH US8:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.984
Allegheny Technologies IncATI US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Coach IncCOH US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
TE Connectivity LtdTEL US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
FirstEnergy CorpFE US8:30FY 2014 Guidance CallY 2014
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US8:45Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Abbott LaboratoriesABT US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
United Technologies CorpUTX US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
US Bancorp/MNUSB US9:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold IncFCX US10:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Parker Hannifin CorpPH US11:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
General Dynamics CorpGD US11:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Northern Trust CorpNTRS US12:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Amphenol CorpAPH US13:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Stryker CorpSYK US16:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.224
Netflix IncNFLX US16:05Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.657
F5 Networks IncFFIV US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Stryker CorpSYK US16:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
eBay IncEBAY US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Netflix IncNFLX US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Varian Medical Systems IncVAR US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Western Digital CorpWDC US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
SanDisk CorpSNDK US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
eBay IncEBAY USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.804
Crown Castle International CorpCCI USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.936
Noble Corp plcNE USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.811
Varian Medical Systems IncVAR USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.905
Western Digital CorpWDC USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20142.084
Jacobs Engineering Group IncJEC USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.741
SanDisk CorpSNDK USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.568
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.422
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USQ4 2013 Earnings Release - December SalesQ4 20130.422
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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