BARCHART MORING CALL 1/27

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Monday, January 27th, 2014View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.52%) this morning are up +0.43%, although European stocks are down -0.22% after Friday's rout in emerging-market currencies fueled concern the global economic recovery is faltering. Another negative for European stocks is the slide in Italian bank stocks, led by a 16% plunge in Banco Poplare, Italy's fourth biggest bank, after it announced an unexpected loss and plans for a capital increase, which spurs concern about the quality of assets in Italian banks. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -2.51%, Hong Kong -2.11%, China -1.33%, Taiwan -1.58%, Australia closed or holiday, Singapore -1.09%, South Korea -1.56%, India -2.02%. Data from Citigroup showed global funds pulled $2.4 billion from emerging-market equity funds in the week through Jan 22, the thirteenth straight week of outflows. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index slumped -2.51% to a 2-1/4 month low after Japan's Dec exports rose less than expected and after Japan's Dec trade deficit widened more-than-expected by the most in 11-months. Losses in European stocks were limited after German Jan investor confidence rose to the highest in 2-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH14 +0.34%) is up +0.13%. Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.51%) is down -0.60%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.04%) is up +0.11%. March copper (HGH14 +0.15%) is up +0.09%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.07%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.43%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.16%) are down -4.5 ticks.
The German Jan Ifo business climate rose +1.1 to 110.6, stronger than expectations of +0.5 to 110.0 and the highest in 2-1/2 years. The Jan Ifo current assessment rose +0.8 to 112.4, right on expectations and the highest in 1-1/2 years. The Jan Ifo expectations gained +1.5 to 108.9, better than expectations of +0.6 to 108.0 and the strongest in 2-3/4 years.
In its monthly report for Jan, the Bundesbank said the imposition of a one-time capital tax on private assets could be an option for countries facing extraordinary financial stress, although it isn't risk free and should only be applied as a last resort. The Bundesbank’s comments come after the IMF suggested that "the sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a capital levy."
Japan's Dec trade balance widened to a deficit of -1.302 trillion yen, a bigger deficit than expectations of -1.240 trillion yen and the eighteenth consecutive monthly deficit. Dec exports gained +15.3% y/y, slower than expectations of +18.0% y/y and Dec imports rose +24.7% y/y, slower than expectations of +26.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s Dec new home sales report is expected to show a -1.9% decline to 455,000, adding to the -2.1% decline to 464,000 seen in November. There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: American Energy Power (consensus $0.57), Roper Industries (1.61), Caterpillar (1.27), Zions Bancorporation (0.43), Apple (14.07), Plum Creek Timber (0.28), Seagate (1.39), United States Steel (-0.26).
Equity conferences this week include: Real World Evidence on Mon-Wed, Stifel Nicolaus Senior Housing and Healthcare Real Estate Conference on Tue, Canadian Power Finance Conference on Tue, and Cloudcast'14 on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Caterpillar (CAT -2.61%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.54, well ahead of consensus of $1.28, and also approved a new $10 billion stock repurchase program.
CSX (CSX -3.03%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Atlantic Equities.
Honeywell (HON -1.48%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Lagenberg.
DigiTimes reports that Samsung (SSNLF -1.92%) has cut its target of notebook shipments in 2014 to 7 million from 12 million units shipped in 2013.
lululemon (LULU +1.00%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Janney Capital.
Cisco (CSCO -1.60%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
Merck (MRK +0.74%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
American Electric Power (AEP -1.81%) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, higher than consensus of 57 cents.
Roper Industries (ROP -2.40%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.65, better than consensus of $1.61.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -3.45%) was awarded a $200 million government contract to perform acquisition and sustainment for the Embedded Global Positioning System Inertial Navigation System.
Corvex Management reported a 7.8% stake in Signet Jewelers (SIG -1.75%) .
Pershing Square reported a 30.9% passive stake in Platform Specialty Products (PAH -3.36%) .
The WSJ reported that Wal-Mart (WMT -0.72%) will eliminate 2,300 Sam's Club employees.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.52%) this morning are up +7.75 points (+0.43%). The S&P 500 on Friday tumbled to a 1-1/4 month low and closed sharply lower after a plunge in emerging-market currencies prompted long liquidation pressures in stocks. Another negative was concern over possible financial stress in China after China’s banking regulator ordered regional offices to increase scrutiny of credit risks in the coal mining industry. Closes: S&P 500 -2.09%, Dow Jones -1.96%, Nasdaq 100 -2.00%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.16%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday rallied to a 2-month high on increased safe-haven demand due to a slide in global equity markets and with a rout in emerging-market currencies. Also, T-notes garnered carry-over support from a rally in German bunds after the 10-year bund yield tumbled to a 5-1/2 month low. Closes: TYH4 +9.0, FVH4 +4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.07%) this morning is up +0.037 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0009 (-0.07%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.43%). The dollar index on Friday recovered from a 3-week low and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand from a plunge in global equity markets and in emerging-market currencies. EUR/USD fell back from a 3-week high after ECB Governing Council member Visco said the ECB could cut interest rates further if needed. USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/2 month low on increased safe-haven demand for the yen as global stocks fell along with possible financial stress in China after China’s banking regulator ordered regional offices to increase scrutiny of credit risks in the coal mining industry. Closes: Dollar index +0.020 (+0.02%), EUR/USD -0.00192 (-0.14%), USD/JPY -1.016 (-0.98%).
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH14 +0.34%) this morning is up +13 cebts (+0.13%) and Mar gasoline (RBH14 -0.51%) is down -0.0161 (-0.60%). Mar crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. Crude settled lower on concern that the sell-off in global equity markets will undercut consumer confidence and curb economic growth. Gasoline erased early losses and closed higher on concern the severe cold weather to grip much of the U.S. will disrupt refinery operations and reduce gasoline supplies after PBF Energy’s 185,000 barrel-a-day refinery in New Jersey reported outages because of the severe cold. Closes: CLH4 -0.68 (-0.70%), RBH4 +0.0009 (+0.03%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/27/2014

US	1000 ET	Dec new home sales expected -1.9% to 455,000, Nov -2.1% to 464,000.
	1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
GER	0400 ET	German Jan IFO business climate expected +0.5 to 110.0, Dec 109.5. Jan IFO current assessment expected +0.8 to 112.4, Dec 111.6. Jan IFO expectations expected +0.6 to 108.0, Dec 107.4.
JPN	1850 ET	Japan Dec corporate service price index expected +1.0% y/y, Nov +1.0% y/y.
CHI	2030 ET	China Dec industrial profits year-to-date, Nov +13.2% y/y.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/27/2014

Company Name	Ticker	Time	Event Description	Period	Estimate
General Motors Co	GM US	6:30	CEO Mary Barra first foreign visit - Adam Opel Haus, Ruesselsheim
American Electric Power Co Inc	AEP US	6:57	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.568
Roper Industries Inc	ROP US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.605
Caterpillar Inc	CAT US	7:30	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.274
Plum Creek Timber Co Inc	PCL US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	0.281
Seagate Technology PLC	STX US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2014 Earnings Release	Q2 2014	1.389
United States Steel Corp	X US	Aft-mkt	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	-0.257