Wednesday, November 27th, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.07%) this morning are up +0.10% and European stocks are up +0.36% after a measure of German consumer confidence rose to the highest in 6-1/3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.42%, Hong Kong +0.53%, China +1.13%, Taiwan +0.58%, Australia -0.45%, Singapore -0.05%, South Korea +0.33%, India -0.02%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 -1.04%) is down -0.42% and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.29%) is up +0.48%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.78%) is up +0.80%. Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.02%) is up +0.30%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.10% at a 1-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.15% at a 3-week high after German lawmakers reached a coalition with Chancellor Merkel. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.49%. The British pound climbed to a 10-3/4 month high against the dollar after no revision to UK Q3 GDP confirmed Britain's economic growth accelerated in Q3. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.15%) are down -7 ticks.EUR/JPY soared to a 4-1/4 year high today as German Chancellor Merkel reached a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats more than 2-months after her Christian Democratic Party won national elections. This puts Chancellor Merkel on track for her third term leading Germany until 2017 once the agreement is passed by the entire 470,000 member SPD.
German Dec Gfk consumer confidence rose +0.3 to 7.4, better than expectations of +0.1 to 7.1 and the highest in 6-1/3 years.
UK Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.8% q/q and +1.5% y/y as expected, although Q3 private consumption was revised upward to +0.8% q/q from the originally reported +0.6% q/q. Also, Q3 exports were revised lower to -2.4% q/q from the originally reported -1.0% q/q and Q3 imports were revised down to +0.4% q/q from +1.3% q/q.
UK Q3 total business investment was +1.4% q/q and -6.3% y/y, stronger than the Q2 reading of -2.7% q/q and -8.5% y/y.
UK Nov CBI reported sales unexpectedly fell to 1 from 2 in Oct, weaker than expectations of an increase to 10 and the slowest pace of sales in 5 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +7,000 to 330,000, reversing part of last week’s unexpected -21,000 drop to 323,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -26,000 to 2.850 million, reversing part of last week’s +66,000 increase to 2.876 million. Today’s Oct durable goods orders report is expected to show a decline of -2.0% mainly because of weak aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, Oct durable goods orders are expected to show an increase of +0.5% after the -0.2% decline in September. Today’s Nov Chicago PMI index is expected to show a decline by -5.9 to 60.0, giving back more than one-half of the +10.2 point surge to 65.9 seen in October. Today’s late-Nov U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +1.1 point increase to 73.1 from the early-Nov level of 72.0. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion in 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $96 billion T-note package.There is only 1 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Golar LNG (consnsus $0.04). There is one equity conference today: 12th Annual World Drug Manufacturing Summit 2013 on Tue-Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
UBS (UBS +0.38%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital.Gap (GPS +0.37%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Argus.
FBR Capital kept its 'Outperform" rating on Expedia (EXPE +1.53%) and raised its price target on the stock to $70 from $65.
Intel (INTC -0.42%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.
DigiTimes reporrs that Apple (AAPL +1.84%) has increased its orders of iPad mini with Retina in November to 4 million units and that orders for the iPad mini with Retina haave already surpassed those for the first-generation iPad mini.
Zurich Insurance (ZURVY +0.53%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Societe Generale.
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH +1.39%) jumped 9% in after-hours trading after Piper Jaffray initiated an 'Overweight' on the stock with a price target of $73.
Burger King (BKW +0.48%) said it had established a joint venture with Groupe Olivier Bertrand to aggressively develop and expand the Burger King brand presence in France.
SAIC (SAIC -4.96%) announced that it was awarded a prime contract by the U.S. Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Atlantic worth as much as $890 million if all options are exercised to provide transport, computing and infrastructure support services related to command, control, communications, computers, combat systems, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -0.91%) climbed over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.01, higher than consensus of $1.00.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.07%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday fluctuated between modest gains and losses throughout the day and finally closed little changed. Supporting stocks was (1) the Sep Case/Shiller composite-20 home price index that rose +13.29% y/y, better than expectations of +13.00% y/y and the most in 7-1/2 years, and (2) U.S. Oct building permits that rose +6.2% to 1.034 million, a 5-1/3 year high. Concerns over consumer spending undercut stocks after U.S. Nov consumer confidence (Conference Board) unexpectedly slipped -2.0 points to a 7-month low of 70.4, weaker than expectations of a +1.4 point increase to 72.6. Closes: S&P 500 +0.01%, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq 100 +0.53%.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.15%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Dec T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on speculation the unexpected drop in U.S. Nov consumer confidence to a 7-month low will prompt the Fed to maintain its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases. Limiting gains in T-notes was the jump in Oct building permits to a 5-1/2 year high and the increase in home prices in the Sep Case/Shiller composite-20 home price index by the most in 7-1/2 years. Closes: TYZ3 +12.50, FVZ3 +6.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.079 (-0.10%) at a 1-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0021 (+0.15%) ata 3-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.50 (+0.49%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on speculation the unexpected slide in U.S. Nov consumer confidence may keep the Fed from tapering QE3. EUR/USD closed higher after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB doesn't see deeper disinflation. Closes: Dollar index -0.309 (-0.38%), EUR/USD +0.00555 (+0.41%), USD/JPY -0.387 (-0.38%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 -1.04%) this morning is down -39 cents (-0.42%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.29%) is up +0.0129 (+0.48%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed mixed. Negative factors included (1) the unexpected decline in U.S. Nov consumer confidence to a 7-month low and (2) expectations for Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories to increase for a tenth consecutive week. Gasoline prices closed higher on speculation demand will increase as consumers travel during the Thanksgiving holiday. Closes: CLF4 -0.41 (-0.44%), RBF4 +0.0089 (+0.33%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/27/2013
| US | 0700 ET | Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.3% with purchase sub-index +5.8% and refi sub-index -6.5%. |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +7,000 to 330,000, previous -21,000 to 323,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -26,000 to 2.850 million, previous +66,000 to 2.876 million. | |
| 0830 ET | Oct durable goods orders expected -2.0% and +0.5% ex transportation, Sep +3.8% and -0.2% ex transportation. | |
| 0830 ET | Oct Chicago Fed national activity index expected -0.04 to 0.10, Sep 0.14. | |
| 0945 ET | Nov Chicago PMI expected -5.9 to 60.0, Oct +10.2 to 65.9. | |
| 0955 ET | End-Nov University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence expected +1.1 to 73.1, previous -1.2 to 72.0. | |
| 1000 ET | Oct leading indicators expected unch m/m, Sep +0.7% | |
| 1030 ET | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes. | |
| GER | 0400 ET | German Dec GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 7.1, Nov 7.0. |
| UK | 0430 ET | Revised UK Q3 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +1.5% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK Sep index of services, Aug +0.4% m/m and +0.6% 3-mo/3-mo. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Q3 total business investment expected +2.0% q/q, Q2 -2.7% q/q and -8.5% y/y | |
| 0430 ET | UK Nov CBI reported sales expected +8 to 10, Oct 2. | |
| JPN | 1850 ET | Japan Oct retail sales expected -0.8% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Sep +1.7% m/m and +3.0% y/y. |
| CHI | 2030 ET | China Oct industrial profits, Sep +13.5% year-to-date y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/27/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golar LNG Ltd | GLNG US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.041 |
| Walt Disney Co/The | DIS US | U.S. Box Office Release of Movie Frozen"" | |||
| Avago Technologies Ltd | AVGO US | ITC Due to Release Findings in Avago vs. Mellanox Patent-Infringement Case |
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