Wednesday, October 30, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.24%) this morning are up +0.27% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.52%. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.23%, Hong Kong +2.00%, China +1.49%, Taiwan +0.52%, Australia +0.28%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +0.43%, India +0.50%. Stocks are higher worldwide on speculation the Fed will continue its stimulus measures at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting later today. Expectations are for no change in the Fed's $85 billion monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. European stocks received a boost after Eurozone Oct economic confidence rose more-than-expected to a 2-year high. Chinese stocks closed higher despite an increase in China's 7-day repurchase rate, which rose by +38 bp to a 3-3/4 month high of 5.42%. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 -1.01%) is down -0.69% after weekly API inventories, released late yesterday afternoon, showed crude stockpiles climbed last week by +5.9 million barrels. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.29%) is up +0.48%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.37%) is up +0.33% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +1.02%) is up +1.10%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.11% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.05%) are up +3.5 ticks.
The Eurozone Oct business climate indicator rose +0.18 to -0.01, more than expectations of +0.01 to -0.19, and the highest in 2-years, and the Oct economic confidence rose +0.9 to 97.8, better than expectations of +0.3 to 97.2 and also the highest in 2-years.
German Oct unemployment rose 2,000, more than expectations for no change, while the Oct unemployment rate remained unch at 6.9%, right on expectations.
The UK Oct Lloyds business barometer rose +6 from Sep to 63, the highest since the data series began in 2002.
Japan Sep industrial production rose +1.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.8% m/m and +5.5% y/y.
Japan Sep vehicle production climbed +13.0% y/y, the first increase in 13 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The 2-day FOMC meeting concludes today and the market is not expecting the FOMC to announce QE3 tapering. Today’s Oct ADP employment report is expected to show a weak increase of +150,000, slipping from September’s report of +166,000. Today’s Sep CPI report is expected to ease to +1.2% y/y from +1.5% in August. Meanwhile, the Sep core CPI is expected to be unchanged from August at +1.8% y/y. The Treasury today will sell $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, concluding this week’s $97 billion T-note auction package. There are 35 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including PG&E, BorgWarner, Comcast, Garmin, Hess, ADP, The Southern Company, GM, Phillips 66, Kraft, Expedia, Allstate, Marriott, Visa, Starbucks, Williams Companies, MetLife. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include The Buttonwood Gathering 2013 on Tue/Wed, Hart Energy Crude In Motion Conference on Wed, The 7th ICIS European Gas Conference on Wed, 7th Toronto Global Forum on Wed-Thu, and SelectUSA 2013 Investment Summit on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
General Motors (GM +0.73%) reported Q3 EPS of 96 cents, better than consenus of 94 cents.
Comcast (CMCSA -1.08%) reported Q3 EPS of 65 cents, better than consensus of 61 cents.
Exelon (EXC -0.07%) reported Q3 EPS of 78 cents, stronger than consensus of 67 cents.
Garmin Ltd (GRMN +0.56%) reported Q3 EPS of 69 cents, well ahead of consensus of 59 cents.
Facebook (FB -1.65%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BTIG with a price target of $68 a share.
Genworth (GNW +1.32%) reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, lower than consensus of 25 cents.
Take-Two (TTWO +1.53%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.49, well ahead of consensus of $1.72, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 to $3.50-$3.75, well ahead of consensus of $2.80. The company said the largest contributor to Q2 earnings were sales of Grand Theft Auto V which has shattered entertainment industry records and sold nearly 29 million units to date.
Flextronics (FLEX -1.45%) lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 21 cents-23 cents, weaker than consensus of 25 cents.
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI unch) reported Q3 EPS with items of $1.08, below consensus of $1.10.
Electronic Arts (EA -2.82%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, nearly three times consensus of 12 cents.
Gilead (GILD +1.12%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 52 cents, better than consensus of 48 cents.
Edison International (EIX -0.22%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.42, well ahead of consensus of $1.23, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.60-$3.70 from $3.25-$3.45, bette rthan consensus of $3.36.
Fiserv (FISV -0.02%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.56, better than consensus of $1.51.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.24%) this morning are up +4.75 points (+0.27%) at a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday posted another record high and closed higher on speculation that the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep retail sales and Oct consumer confidence reports will keep the Fed from tapering QE3. The U.S. Sep retail sales report of -0.1% m/m and +0.4% ex-autos was slightly weaker than unch m/m and +0.4% ex-autos, while U.S. Oct consumer confidence (Conference Board) fell -9.0 to 71.2, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.7 to 75.0 and the lowest level in 6 months. Closes: S&P 500 +0.56%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq 100 +0.27%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.05%) this morning are up +3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep retail sales and Oct consumer confidence reports will prompt the Fed to maintain its $85 billion a month bond-buying program. Gains in T-notes were limited after the Aug S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +12.82% y/y, higher than expectations of +12.50% y/y and the biggest annual gain in 7-1/2 years. Closes: TYZ3 +5.0, FVZ3 +2.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.046 (-0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.11%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.07 (+0.07%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation the Fed will refrain from additional stimulus measures following its Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Losses in EUR/USD were limited after hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Nowotny who said it’s “unlikely” the ECB will cut interest rates further. Closes: Dollar index +0.361 (+0.46%), EUR/USD -0.00398 (-0.29%), USD/JPY +0.52 (+0.53%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 -1.01%) this morning is down -68 cents (-0.69%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.29%) is up +0.0125 (+0.48%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower on strength in the dollar along with expectations that weekly EIA crude inventories on Wednesday will climb for a sixth consecutive week. Closes: CLZ3 -0.48 (-0.49%), RBZ3 -0.0186 (-0.71%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2013
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.6% with purchase sub-index +0.7% and refi sub-index-1.3%.
0815 ETOct ADP employment change expected +150,000, Sep +166,000.
0830 ETSep CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Sep CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
1400 ETFOMC policy announcement. QE3 expected unchanged at $85 billion per month ($40 billion of MBS and $45 billion of Treasury securities).
JPN0000 ETJapan Sep vehicle production, Aug -7.6% y/y.
1915 ETJapan Oct Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Sep 52.5.
2130 ETJapan Sep labor cash earnings expected -0.4% y/y, Aug -0.9% y/y.
GER0455 ETGerman Oct unemployment change expected unch, Sep +25,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.9%, Sep 6.9%.
0900 ETGerman Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected unch m/m and +1.5% y/y, Sep unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK0530 ETUK Oct Lloyd business barometer, Sep 57.
2005 ETUK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected +2 to -8, Sep -10.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Oct business climate indicator expected +0.01 to -0.19, Sep -0.20. Oct economic confidence expected +0.3 to 97.2, Sep 96.9.
0600 ETRevised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence expected no change at -14.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
PG&E CorpPCG USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.781
BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.339
Exelon CorpEXC USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.665
Praxair IncPX USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.514
Corning IncGLW USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.32
TE Connectivity LtdTEL US6:00Q4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.902
American Tower CorpAMT US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.908
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.586
Comcast CorpCMCSA US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.609
Garmin LtdGRMN US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.591
Hess CorpHES US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.444
Automatic Data Processing IncADP US7:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.658
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.757
Southern Co/TheSO US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.111
Sealed Air CorpSEE US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.334
General Motors CoGM US7:30Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.942
AGL Resources IncGAS US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.145
Genworth Financial IncGNW US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Phillips 66PSX US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.934
Automatic Data Processing IncADP US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Corning IncGLW US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
TE Connectivity LtdTEL US8:30Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Comcast CorpCMCSA US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Aflac IncAFL US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
AGL Resources IncGAS US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Ameriprise Financial IncAMP US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Range Resources CorpRRC US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Jabil Circuit IncJBL US9:30Analyst MeetingY 2013
Kroger Co/TheKR US9:30Investor MeetingY 2013
Hess CorpHES US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Exelon CorpEXC US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Sealed Air CorpSEE US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Boston Properties IncBXP US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
General Motors CoGM US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Kimco Realty CorpKIM US10:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Mattel IncMAT US10:00Analyst MeetingY 2013
Garmin LtdGRMN US10:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Praxair IncPX US11:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US11:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Phillips 66PSX US11:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
PG&E CorpPCG US12:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Southern Co/TheSO US13:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Target CorpTGT US13:00Financial Community MeetingY 2013
Wisconsin Energy CorpWEC US14:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT US16:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.696
Expedia IncEXPE US16:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.358
Allstate Corp/TheALL US16:05Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.443
Computer Sciences CorpCSC US16:15Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.828
Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Visa IncV US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
Microchip Technology IncMCHP US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Marriott International Inc/DEMAR US17:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.448
Computer Sciences CorpCSC US17:00Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
PerkinElmer IncPKI US17:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Starbucks CorpSBUX US17:00Q4 2013 Earnings CallQ4 2013
JDS Uniphase CorpJDSU US17:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
XL Group PLCXL US17:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT US17:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Murphy Oil CorpMUR USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.468
Owens-Illinois IncOI USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.768
Visa IncV USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20131.851
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USAft-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.597
PerkinElmer IncPKI USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.482
Starbucks CorpSBUX USAft-mktQ4 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20130.6
JDS Uniphase CorpJDSU USAft-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.116
XL Group PLCXL USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.537
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.142
Lincoln National CorpLNC USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.222
MetLife IncMET USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.36
Equity ResidentialEQR USQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.728
Seagate Technology PLCSTX USAnnual General Meeting
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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