Monday, September 16th, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +1.07%) this morning are up +1.07% at a fresh contract high and European stocks are up +0.86%. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong +1.47%, China -0.42%, Taiwan +1.39%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore +1.90%, South Korea +1.16%, India +0.05%. Global stocks and bonds rallied, while the dollar fell to a 3-week low, after former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to become Fed Chairman. Market speculation is that Summers would have tightened Fed policy more than Janet Yellen, his main rival to replace outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV13 -1.49%) is down -1.31% and Oct gasoline (RBV13 -1.75%) is down -1.44% as the threat of an imminent U.S. attack on Syria eased after U.S. Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed on Saturday on a framework for locating and destroying Syria's stockpiles of chemical weapons by mid-2014. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.27%) is up +0.50% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.42%) is up +0.27%. Agricultural prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) is down -0.31% at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.41% at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.70%) are up sharply by +27.5 ticks as they gapped up to a 1-month high after Lawrence Summers, a noted hawk, withdrew his candidacy to become the next Fed Chairman.Eurozone Q2 labor costs rose +0.9% y/y, slower than a +1.7% y/y increase n Q1 that was revised up from the previously reported +1.6% y/y, and the slowest pace of increase since data began in 1996.
Eurozone Aug CPI rose +0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and was left unrevised at +1.3% y/y. The Aug core CPI was also left unrevised at +1.1% y/y.
UK Sep Rightmove house prices fell -1.5% m/m and rose +4.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
This will be a critical news week with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and indications of whether there will be a government shut-down on Oct 1. Today brings Sep Empire manufacturing index (expected +0.8 to 9.0) and Aug industrial production (expected +0.4%). There are no major earnings reports today.Equity conferences this week include: Morgan Stanley Industrials & Autos Conference on Mon-Wed, Capital Link Global Commodities Energy Freight Forum on Tue, Home Delivery World 2013 on Tue, Citi Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed,
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Packaging Corp. (PKG +0.65%) will acquire Boise (BZ +3.86%) for $12.55 per share in cash or $1.995 billion.ChinaEdu (CEDU +0.14%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Overweight" at Piper Jaffray due to valuation.
According to DigiTimes, Samsung (SSNLF +2.71%) has cut its notebook component orders in September to about half of its original forecast and may also reduce its shipment forecast in 2013 to 13 million units from 13.8 million in 2012.
Under Armour (UA -2.59%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Positive" at Susquehanna.
Bristol-Myers (BMY -0.27%) was upgraded to "Overweight" from "Neutral" at JPMorgan.
Oaktree Capital (OAK +1.52%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at BofA/Merrill.
Barclays (BCS -0.31%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Reduce" at Nomura.
Citigroup kept its "Buy" rating on United Natural Foods (UNFI +12.94%) and raised its price target on the stock to $80 from $64.
AstraZeneca (AZN +0.16%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Sell" at Nordea.
ALPS Advisors reported a 5.0% passive stake in MarkWest Energy (MWE -1.21%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +1.07%) this morning are up sharply by +18.00 points (+1.07%) at a new contract high. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed higher on speculation that the weaker-than-expected Aug retail sales and Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence will prompt the Fed to be less aggressive when tapering stimulus. Another positive for stocks was the reduced chance for a U.S. military attack on Syria after Secretary of State Kerry reported “constructive” negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons. Closes: S&P 500 +0.27%, Dow Jones +0.49%, Nasdaq 100 +0.09%.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.70%) this morning are up +27.5 ticks at a 1-month high. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Friday opened lower on the prospects of tighter monetary policy after the Nikkei reported that former Treasury Secretary Summers, a noted hawk, will be named the next Fed Chairman. T-note prices recovered and closed higher, though, after U.S. Aug retail sales and Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence came in weaker-than-expected. Another positive for T-note prices was the decline in the Aug core PPI to a 3-1/3 year low of +1.1% y/y. Closes: TYZ3 +4.00, FVZ3 unch.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.37%) this morning is down -0.255 (-0.31%) at a 3-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0054 (+0.41%) at a 2-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.48 (-0.48%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower on speculation the weaker-than-expected U.S. Aug retail sales and Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence reports will limit the amount of stimulus the Fed cuts next week. Closes: Dollar index -0.037 (-0.05%), EUR/USD -0.00041 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.168 (-0.17%).
Oct WTI crude oil (CLV13 -1.49%) this morning is down -$1.42 (-1.31%) a barrel and Oct gasoline (RBV13 -1.75%) is down -0.0400 (-1.44%) as the risks of an imminent U.S. military attack on Syria recede. Oct crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. A rally in equities lifted gasoline, while crude was undercut on reduced chances of a U.S. military strike on Syria after Secretary of State Kerry reported that negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons was “constructive.” Crude was also pressured by the weaker-than-expected U.S. Aug retail sales and the Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence reports. Closes: CLV3 -0.39 (-0.36%), RBV3 +0.0069 (+0.25%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/16/2013
| US | 0830 ET | Sep Empire manufacturing index expected +0.76 to 9.00, Aug -1.22 to 8.24. |
| 0915 ET | Aug industrial production expected +0.4%, July unch. Aug manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m, July -0.1% m/m. Aug capacity utilization expected +0.3 to 77.9%, July was -0.1 to 77.6%. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA Crop Progress. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone Q2 labor costs, Q1 +1.6% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Aug CPI, previous +1.3% y/y. Revised Aug core CPI, previous +1.1% y/y. | |
| JPN | n/a | Japanese markets closed for Respect-for-the-aged Day. |
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