Monday, July 1st, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.50%) this morning are up +0.47% and European stocks are up +0.80%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.28%, China +0.58%, Taiwan -0.33%, Australia -1.92%, Singapore -0.30%, South Korea -0.50%, India +0.94%. Signs of improvement in the global economy are giving a boost to stocks after Japanese Q2 Tankan large manufacturers' confidence increased for the first time in over 2-years, UK manufacturing activity in Jun rose to its highest in 2-years, and after the Eurozone Jun PMI manufacturing index was unexpectedly revised higher. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 +0.70%) is up +0.49%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +0.71%) is up +0.60%, Aug natural gas (NGQ13 +0.06%) is up +0.50%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +1.10%) is up +1.35% and July copper (HGN13 +2.43%) is up +2.03%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is down -0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.28%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51% at a 3-week high as the yen fell after Japan's Q2 Tankan showed large manufacturers were the most optimistic in 2-1/4 years. September 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNU13 -0.30%) this morning are down -8.5 ticks.The Eurozone Jun CPI estimate was +1.6% y/y, right on expectations, and the Jun CPI core was +1.2% y/y, also right on expectations.
The Eurozone Jun PMI manufacturing index was revised higher to 48.8 from the originally reported 48.7.
The Eurozone May unemployment rate rose +0.1 to 12.1% from a revised 12.0% in Apr, a record high for the data series that goes back to 1990.
The German Jun PMI manufacturing index was revised lower to 48.6 from the originally reported 48.7.
The UK Jun manufacturing PMI climbed +1.0 to 52.5, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 51.4 and its best level in 2 years.
UK May mortgage approvals climbed to 58,200, more than expectations of 55,800 and the most since December 2009.
The Q2 Japan Tankan business conditions large manufacturing index rose to 4 from -8 in Q1, stronger than expectations of 3 and its best level in 2-1/4 years.
The China Jun manufacturing PMI fell -0.7 to 50.1, a 4-month low and right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s June ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +1.5 point recovery to 50.5 after the -1.7 point tumble to 4-year low of 49.0 in May. The U.S. markets during this holiday-shortened week will focus mainly on Friday’s June unemployment report, which is expected to show continued modest growth in the U.S. labor market. June payrolls are expected to show a +165,000 increase after the +175,000 increase in May. The June unemployment rate is expected to fall -0.1 point to 7.5%. There are no Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today. There are no major equity conferences this week.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tribune Company (TRBAA +0.18%) and Local TV jointly announced they have entered into a definitive agreement for Tribune to acquire all of Local TV's 19 television stations for $2.725 billion in cash.Marvell (MRVL -1.01%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at Lazard Capital.
Apple (AAPL +0.70%) was upgraded to "Strong Buy" from "Outperform" at Raymond James.
Jeffries kept its "Buy" rating on Tesla (TSLA -1.73%) and raised its price target on the stock to $130 from $70.
BlackBerry (BBRY -27.76%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" at Societe Generale.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC +0.01%) was downgraded to "Underweight" from "Neutral" at JPMorgan.
Pandora (P +1.32%) was upgraded to "Overweight" from "Equal Weight" at Morgan Stanley with a target price of $24.
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX +1.90%) surged 15% in after-hours trading after the Financial Times reported that Amgen (AMGN -0.33%) is looking to buy the company for $120 a share.
Huntington Ingalls (HII -0.19%) was awarded a $745 million U.S. Navy contract for the inactivation of the USS Enterprise.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Service places Cooper Tire (CTB +0.61%) ratings on "Watch Negative."
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.50%) this morning are up +7.50 points (+0.47%). The S&P 500 index on Friday settled mixed on mixed economic reports. The June Chicago PMI fell -7.1 to 51.6, weaker than than expectations of -3.7 to 55.0, but the final-June University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence rose by +1.4 to 84.1, stronger than market expectations of +0.3 to 83.0. Closes: S&P 500 -0.43%, Dow Jones -0.76%, Nasdaq 100 +0.09%.September 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 -0.30%) this morning are down -8.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed lower. Fed Governor Stein bolstered speculation the Fed may begin to cut its bond purchases by the Sep FOMC meeting when he said policy makers should concentrate on the amount of economic progress since QE began “in making a decision in, say, September.” Declines were limited after the Jun Chicago PMI was weaker than expected. Closes: TYU3 -2.50, FVU3 +0.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is down -0.085 (-0.10%). EUR/USD is up +0.0037 (+0.28%) and USD/JPY ^USDJPY) is up +0.51 (+0.51%) at a 3-week high. The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 3-1/2 week high and closed higher. The dollar followed Treasury yields higher on expectations the Fed may start to taper QE by September on hawkish comments from Fed Governor Stein. USD/JPY rose to a 3-week high on reduced safe-haven demand for the yen as Chinese money-market rates fell further after PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the PBOC will use all of the tools at its disposal to ensure market stability. Closes: Dollar index +0.275 (+0.33%), EUR/USD -0.00303 (-0.23%), USD/JPY +0.788 (+0.80%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 +0.70%) this morning is up +47 cents (+0.49%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +0.71%) is up +1.63 cents (+0.60%). Aug crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower. Aug crude posted a 1-week high early Friday after stronger-than-expected global economic data on German May retail sales and Japan May industrial production signaled economic strength, but a rally in the dollar index to a 3-1/2 week high undercut energy prices. Closes: CLQ3 -0.49 (-0.50%), RBQ3 -0.0133 (-0.49%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/01/2013
| US | 1000 ET | May construction spending expected +0.6%, Apr +0.4% m/m. |
| 1000 ET | Jun ISM manufacturing index expected +1.5 to 50.5, May -1.7 to 49.0. Jun ISM prices paid expected +1.0 to 50.5, May -0.5 to 49.5. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA Crop Progress. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Japan Jun vehicle sales, May -7.3% y/y. |
| 2130 ET | Japan May labor cash earnings, Apr unch y/y. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Jun PMI manufacturing, previous 48.7. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone PMI manufacturing, previous 48.7. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone Jun CPI estimate expected +1.6% y/y, May +1.4% y/y. | |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone May unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 12.3%, Apr 12.2%. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jun PMI manufacturing expected -0.1 to 51.2, May 51.3. |
| 0430 ET | UK May net consumer credit expected +0.7 billion pounds, Apr +0.5 billion pounds. | |
| 0430 ET | UK May mortgage approvals expected 55,800, Apr 53,700. | |
| 0430 ET | UK May M4 money supply expected unch m/m and unch y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y. |
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