Barchart Moring Call 7/16

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, July 16th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.04% and European stocks are down -0.43%. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.64%, Hong Kong +0.04%, China +0.46%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.10%, Singapore -0.37%, South Korea -0.58%, India -0.91%. European stocks were undercut after German investor confidence in July unexpectedly declined and after European Jun auto sales fell to their lowest level in 2 decades. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Aug crude oil (CLQ13 +0.53%) is up +0.18%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +0.40%) is up +0.47%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +0.43%) is up +0.51%, and Sep copper (HGU13 +0.46%) is up +0.38%. Agricultural and livestock prices are stronger. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.35%) is down -0.34%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.38% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 +0.14%) are up +6.5 ticks.
The German July ZEW economic sentiment survey unexpectedly fell -2.2 points to 36.3, weaker than expectations of a +1.5 point increase to 40.0. The July ZEW current situation survey rose +2.0 points to 10.6, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 9.0.
The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association reported European Jun auto registrations fell -6.3% y/y to 1.18 million vehicles, the lowest for the month since 1996, while European Jan-Jun car sales fell -6.7% y/y to 6.44 million vehicles, the least for the first half of a year since 1993.
The Eurozone Jun CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, right on expectations, and the Jun core CPI climbed at a +1.2% y/y pace, also right on expectations.
The Eurozone May trade balance unexpectedly grew to a 15.2 billion euro surplus from a revised 14.1 billion euros surplus in April, wider than expectations for the trade balance to shrink to 12.0 billion euros.
UK Jun CPI fell -0.2% m/m and rose +2.9% y/y, smaller increases than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, although Jun core CPI climbed at a +2.3% y/y pace, right on expectations.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

On a year-on-year basis, the June CPI is expected to rise to +1.6% y/y from +1.4% in May.  However, the core CPI is expected to ease to +1.6% y/y from +1.7% in May.  Today’s June industrial production report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, gaining ground again after being unchanged in May.  Today’s July NAHB housing market index is expected to show a small -1 point decline to 51, giving back a little ground after the +8 point surge to a 7-year high of 52 seen in June.  There are 8 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today:  Schwab (consensus $0.19), Coca-Cola (0.63), Comerica (0.70), Mosaic (1.15), Goldman Sachs (2.89), Johnson & Johnson (1.39), CSX (0.47), Yahoo (0.30).  There are no equity conferences this week.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Amazon.com (AMZN -0.32%) was initiated with a "Buy" at SunTrust with a price target of $370.
General Motors (GM +0.27%) was upgraded to "Conviction Buy" from "Buy," while Ford (F +0.06%) was downgraded to "Buy" from "Conviction Buy" at Goldman.
Yum! Brands (YUM +1.59%) was initiated with a "Buy" at Stifel with a price target of $105.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -0.59%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Overweight" at JPMorgan.
DaVita (DVA -0.80%) was downgraded to "Sell" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
Mosaic (MOS +0.05%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.14, slightly weaker than expectations of $1.15.
Comerica (CMA -0.31%) reported Q2 EPS of 76 cents, better than expectations of 70 cents.
J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.61%) raised its quarterly dividend to 58 cents from 52 cents per share.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.19%) said it will take charges of between $1.75-$1.85 on Q2 EPS and Q2 EPS may not compare to consensus estimates for $2.64 per share.
Brown & Brown (BRO +0.09%) reported Q2 EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 35 cents.
Cintas (CTAS -0.25%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 69 cents, below consensus of 70 cents.
Berry Plastics (BERY +0.23%) sees Q3 revenue of $1.22 billion-$1.23 billion, below consensus of $1.26 billion, due to soft customer demand.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.04%) this morning are little changed, up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%). The U.S. stock market on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) China Q2 GDP of +7.5% y/y, right on expectations, which reduced market concerns of a larger decline in Chinese economic growth, and (2) the unexpected +1.62 point increase in the July Empire manufacturing index to 9.36, its strongest pace of expansion in 5 months and better than expectations of a -2.84 decline to 5.00. Stocks basically ignored U.S. June retail sales, which rose +0.4% and were unchanged less autos, weaker than expectations of +0.8% and +0.5% less autos. Closes: S&P 500 +0.14%, Dow Jones +0.13%, Nasdaq 100 +0.03%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 +0.14%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed higher after the smaller-than-expected increase in June retail sales signaled weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth that may give the Fed pause before they begin to taper QE3. Closes: TYU3 +13.00, FVU3 +6.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.35%) this morning is down -0.286 (-0.34%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0050 (+0.38%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52 (-0.52%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher after the July Empire manufacturing index climbed to its best level in 5 months and bolstered expectations for the Fed to soon taper its dollar negative bond purchases. The dollar fell back from its best level after U.S. June retail sales increased at a slower pace than expected. Closes: Dollar index +0.055 (+0.07%), EUR/USD -0.0078 (-0.05%), USD/JPY +0.619 (+0.62%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 +0.53%) this morning is up +19 cents (+0.18%) and Aug gasoline (RBQ13 +0.40%) is up +1.47 cents (+0.47%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Bullish factors included (1) the increase in China June crude demand to 9.991 million barrels a day, up +10.98% y/y, and (2) the unexpected increase in the July Empire manufacturing index to its best level in 5 months (+1.62 to 9.36). Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jun retail sales. Closes: CLQ3 +0.37 (+0.35%), RBQ3 unch.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/16/2013

US	0830 ET	Jun CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y. Jun CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
	0915 ET	Jun industrial production expected +0.3%, May unch. Jun capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 77.7%, May -0.1 to 77.6%.
	1000 ET	Jul NAHB housing market index expected -1 to 51, Jun +8 to 52.
	1415 ET	Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks on economic conditions and agriculture at the Kansas City Feds 2013 Agricultural Symposium.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
EUR	0200 ET	Eurozone Jun new car registrations, May -5.9%.
	0500 ET	Eurozone May trade balance expected +16.2 billion euros (sa), Apr +16.1 billion euros (sa).
	0500 ET	Revised Eurozone CPI, previous +1.6% y/y and core CPI +1.2% y/y.
UK	0430 ET	UK Jun PPI input prices expected -0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y, May -0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jun PPI output prices expected unch m/m and +1.9% y/y, May unch m/m and +1.2% y/y. Jun PPI output core prices expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jun CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +2.3% y/y, May +2.2% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK Jun RPI expected unch m/m and +3.4% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y. Jun RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +3.4% y/y, May +3.1% y/y.
GER	0500 ET	German July ZEW economic sentiment survey expected +1.5 to 40.0, Jun 38.5. July ZEW current situation survey expected +0.4 to 9.0, Jun 8.6.
CHI	2200 ET	China Jun actual foreign direct investment (FDI) expected +0.7% y/y, May +0.3% y/y

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/16/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
Charles Schwab Corp/The	SCHW US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.187
Coca-Cola Co/The	KO US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.629
Comerica Inc	CMA US	Bef-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.7
Mosaic Co/The	MOS US	7:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Release	Q4 2013	1.147
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The	GS US	7:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	2.886
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ US	7:45	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	1.392
Comerica Inc	CMA US	8:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ US	8:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Mosaic Co/The	MOS US	9:00	Q4 2013 Earnings Call	Q4 2013
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The	GS US	9:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Coca-Cola Co/The	KO US	9:30	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc	FCX US	10:00	Annual General Meeting
Yahoo! Inc	YHOO US	17:00	Q2 2013 Earnings Call	Q2 2013
CSX Corp	CSX US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.473
Yahoo! Inc	YHOO US	Aft-mkt	Q2 2013 Earnings Release	Q2 2013	0.297