Thursday, May 16th, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 unch) this morning are down % and European stocks are lower by % as equity markets consolidate their recent gains. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.39%, Hong Kong +0.17%, China +1.83%, Taiwan +0.86%, Australia -0.50%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.93%, India +0.17%. Foreign direct investment unexpectedly slowed last month in China, while the Japanese economy in Q1 expanded at its fastest pace in a year. Commodity prices are mostly lower. June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -0.50%) is down -0.60%, June gasoline (RBM13 -0.31%) is down -0.31%, June natural gas (NGM13 -0.17%) is up +0.29%, June gold (GCM13 -1.54%) is down -1.67% and July copper (HGN13 -0.80%) is down -0.84%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.40%. June 10-year T-note futures prices (ZNM13 +0.01%) are down -2 ticks.Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said to reporters in Milan, Italy today that the current Fed QE pace was appropriate for six months ago, but recent economic data means the Fed should taper QE in June.
The Eurozone Mar trade balance widened to +18.7 billion euros, more than expectations of +11.5 billion euros. Eurozone Mar exports rose a seasonally adjusted +2.8% from Feb, while Mar imports fell -1.0% m/m.
China Apr foreign direct investment climbed +0.4% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +6.2% y/y, and raises growth concerns in China.
Japan Q1 GDP grew +0.9% q/q and +3.5% annualized, better than expectations of +0.7% q/q and +2.7% annualized, although the Q1 GDP deflator fell -1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.9% y/y and the biggest decline since Q4 2011.
Japan Mar industrial production was revised up to +0.9% m/m and -6.7% y/y, stronger than the previously reported +0.2% m/m and -7.3% y/y, although Mar capacity utilization was revised lower to -0.8% m/m from the originally reported -0.7% m/m.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +7,000 to 330,000, more than reversing last week’s -4,000 decline to 323,000. Continuing claims are expected to fall by -2,000 to 3.003 million, adding to last week’s decline of -27,000 to 3.005 million. Today’s April CPI report is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m, adding to the -0.2% decline seen in March. The April core CPI is expected to show an increase of +0.2% m/m after the +0.1% increase seen in March. Today’s April housing starts report is expected to show a decline of -5.4% to 980,000, reversing most of the +7.0% increase to 1.036 million seen in March. Today’s May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a small +1.0 point increase to 2.3 after the -0.7 point decline to 1.3 seen in April.Today is a big day for retailer earnings reports including Wal-Mart (consensus $1.15), Kohl's (0.57), JC Penney (-1.05), and Nordstrom (0.76). Other reports today include Applied Materials (0.13), Autodesk (0.45), and Dell (0.35). Dell's report will be watched the implications for further data on the fall-out from the recent plunge in desktop computer sales.
Conferences during the remainder of this week include Citi Global Energy and Utilities Conference on Tue-Thu, JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Conference on Wed-Thu, 15th Annual Medicaid and GP Congress on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Refining Conference on Thu, 19th International Cash, Treasury and Risk for Finance Professionals in Asia Co on Wed-Fri, and Google Developers Conference on Wed-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Both Molson Coors (TAP -0.06%) and Constellation Brands (STZ +0.22%) were upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Stifel.Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE +2.68%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" at Stifel because of valuation.
WalMart (WMT +1.37%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.14, slightly weaker than consensus of $1.15, and said it sees Q2 EPS of $1.22-$1,27, weaker than consensus of $1.29.
Kohl's (KSS +1.00%) reported Q1 EPS of 66 cents, better than expectations of 57 cents.
Actavis (ACT +1.81%) rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported that Novartis AG my bid for the largest U.S. maker of generic drugs.
The WSJ reported that General Electric (GE +1.00%) said more than 70 Boeing (BA +0.95%) 777 models may be affected by an engine manufacturing defect.
Potash (POT +0.70%) increased its quarterly dividend to 35 cents per share from 28 cents.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new use for Simponi, a drug marketed by Janssen, a unit of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +0.77%) , to treat adults with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 5.03% passive stake in Liberty Media (LMCA +1.76%) and a 5.8% passive stake in DirecTV (DTV +1.18%) .
Aegean Marine (ANW +2.04%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, weaker than consensus of 14 cents.
Sapient (SAPE +0.27%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, better than consensus of9 cents.
Monthly data from ComScore showed Google (GOOG +3.25%) sites led U.S. April searches on the internet with 66.5% of search queries conducted, followed by Microsoft (MSFT +0.95%) sites with 17.4%, and Yahoo! (YHOO +2.63%) sites with 12%.
Jack in the Box (JACK +0.29%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.
Cisco (CSCO -0.28%) rallied over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 51 cents, higher than consensus of 49 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 unch) this morning are little changed, down -0.50 (-0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday recovered from early losses tied to a weaker-than-expected May Empire manufacturing index (-1.43 vs. expectations of 4.00) and Apr industrial production (-0.5% vs., expectations of -0.2%). The market rallied to a new all-time high and closed higher on speculation the weak economic data will keep the Fed from scaling back QE3. Closes: S&P 500 +0.51%, Dow Jones +0.40%, Nasdaq 100 +0.22%.June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 +0.01%) this morning are down -2 ticks. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 1-1/2 month low and settled higher after the weaker-than-expected May Empire manufacturing index and April industrial production report. However, a rally in the Dow and S&P 500 to record highs undercut the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Closes: TYM3 -8.0, FVM3 -3.0.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.06%) this morning is up +0.094 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0023 (-0.18%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.41 (+0.40%). The dollar index on Wednesday rallied to a new 9-1/2 month high as a weaker-than-expected Eurozone Q1 GDP report sent EUR/USD falling to a 1-1/4 month low on speculation the ECB will expand its easing measures, which will further undercut the euro’s interest-rate differentials. USD/JPY fell back from a 4-1/2 year high as strength in stocks undercut the safe-haven demand for the yen. Closes: Dollar index +0.235 (+0.28%), EUR/USD -0.00337 (-0.26%), USD/JPY -0.156 (-0.15%).
June WTI crude oil (CLM13 -0.50%) this morning is down -57 cents (-0.60%) and June gasoline (RBM13 -0.31%) is down -0.0090 (-0.31%). June crude oil and gasoline shook off early losses and closed higher as a rally in the S&P 500 to a record high boosted economic optimism. Crude and gasoline had earlier fallen to 2-week lows on bearish factors that included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 9-1/2 month high, (2) the weaker-than-expected Eurozone Q1 GDP report (-0.2% q/q vs. expectations of -0.1% q/q) and U.S. Apr industrial production (-0.5% vs. expectations of -0.2%), and (3) EIA data showing that U.S. fuel consumption fell -584,000 bbl to 18.5 million bpd in the week ended May 10. Closes: CLM3 +0.09 (+0.10%), RBM3 +0.0294 (+1.04%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/16/2013
| US | 0345 ET | Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Global Interdependence Center on Milan. |
| 0745 ET | Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Global Interdependence Center on Milan. | |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +7,000 to 330,000, previous -4,000 to 323,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -2,000 to 3.003 million, previous -27,000 to 3.005 million. | |
| 0830 ET | Apr CPI expected -0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Mar -0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Apr CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y. | |
| 0830 ET | Apr housing starts expected -5.4% to 980,000, Mar +7.0% to 1.036 million. Apr building permits expected +3.6% to 940,000, Mar -3.4% to 907,000. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 0900 ET | Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at the NABE 2013 Industry Conference in Houston, TX. | |
| 1000 ET | May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +1.0 to 2.3, Apr -0.7 to 1.3. | |
| 1100 ET | Treasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned on May 23. | |
| 1505 ET | San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers a speech on the economy and monetary policy to the Portland Business Journal 2013 CFO of the Year awards luncheon. | |
| JPN | 0030 ET | Revised Japan Mar industrial production, previous +0.2% m/m and -7.3% y/y. Revised Mar capacity utilization, previous +0.7% m/m. |
| 1950 ET | Japan Mar machine orders expected +3.3% m/m and -4.9% y/y, Feb +7.5% m/m and -11.3% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Apr CPI, previous +1.2% y/y. Revised Apr CPI core, previous +1.0% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/16/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 1.145 |
| Flowers Foods Inc | FLO US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.429 |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | 7:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Kohl's Corp | KSS US | 7:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.566 |
| Kohl's Corp | KSS US | 8:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| KeyCorp | KEY US | 8:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Flowers Foods Inc | FLO US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc | AMD US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Altria Group Inc | MO US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Bruker Corp | BRKR US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Hess Corp | HES US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | 2013 | |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc | HST US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc | MMC US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Sealed Air Corp | SEE US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Regions Financial Corp | RF US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Apache Corp | APA US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| OGE Energy Corp | OGE US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| St Joe Co/The | JOE US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Westar Energy Inc | WR US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Covanta Holding Corp | CVA US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc | DPS US | 11:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Intel Corp | INTC US | 11:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Autodesk Inc | ADSK US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.446 |
| Dell Inc | DELL US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.346 |
| Nordstrom Inc | JWN US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.759 |
| Applied Materials Inc | AMAT US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.13 |
| Brocade Communications Systems Inc | BRCD US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.151 |
| Questar Corp | STR US | Analyst Day - New York | Y 2013 | ||
| Hasbro Inc | HAS US | ITC Hearing on Patent-Infrigement of Laminated Packaging | |||
| ACE Ltd | ACE US | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | ||
| Lear Corp | LEA US | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 |
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