Tuesday, April 16th, 2013
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.78%) this morning are up +0.50% on ideas that yesterday's -2.30% sell-off was overdone. E-mini S&Ps are higher despite this morning's -0.57% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index on today's weak Eurozone and German ZEW confidence indexes. Gold rebounded by +2.2% this morning on some short-covering after the 14% plunge seen in the past two sessions and on a comment by Sri Lanka's central bank chief that the decline in gold prices would give central banks an opportunity to buy. Asian stock markets today closed mixed. Japan's Nikkei index closed -0.41%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed -0.46%, China's CSI 300 index closed +0.93%, and Australia's S&P 200 closed -0.34%. Commodity prices today are mixed but are up +0.46% on average on some upward rebounds from yesterday's steep losses. May crude oil (CLK13 -0.07%) is down -0.42%, May gasoline (RBK13 +0.11%) is down -0.11%, May natural gas (NGK13 +0.12%) is up +0.31%, June gold (GCM13 +1.85%) is up +2.20%, May silver (SIK13 +0.81%)is up +1.00%, May copper (HGK13 +0.14%) is up +0.18%, and agricultural prices are trading mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.36%) is mildly lower by -0.29%, EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.51%, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.06%. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.15%) are trading 4 ticks lower.Moody's today affirmed China's Aa3 credit rating, but cut the outlook to stable from positive. Moody's is concerned about the Chinese government's failure to make much progress on reducing the risks from credit expansion and local-government debt.
The Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index of institutional investors and analysts fell by -8.5 points to 24.9 from 33.4 in March. Meanwhile, the German April ZEW economic sentiment index fell sharply by -12.2 points to 36.3 from the 3-year high of 48.5 in March and was weaker than market expectations of 41.0.
The UK PPI data was roughly in line with market expectations. March input PPI eased to +0.4% y/y from a revised +2.1% in Feb and was weaker than market expectations of +0.7%. The March output PPI eased to +2.0% y/y from +2.3% and was in line with market expectations. The March core output PPI was unchanged from Feb at +1.3% and was slightly weaker than market expectations of +1.4%.
The UK consumer price data was also roughly in line with market expectations. The UK March CPI of +2.8% was unchanged from Feb and was close to market expectations. The March RPI of +3.3% y/y was up slightly from +3.2% but was in line with market expectations.
Today's March Eurozone CPI of +1.7% y/y was unchanged from Feb and was in line with market expectations. The March core CPI rose to +1.5% y/y from +1.3% in Feb and was stronger than market expectations of +1.4%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's March CPI is expected to dip to +1.6% y/y from +2.0% in Feb. The March core CPI is expected to be unchanged from Feb at +2.0% y/y. Today’s March housing starts report is expected to show an increase of +1.4% to 930,000, adding to the +0.8% increase to 917,000 seen in February. Today’s March industrial production report is expected to show a modest increase of +0.2% m/m, adding to the sharp increase of +0.8% m/m in Feb. Today is a fairly big earnings day with 13 of the S&P 500 companies report. The majority already reported before today's open, but Intel and Yahoo are notable companies that report after today's close.Conferences during the remainder of this week include Independent Petroleum Association of America Oil and Gas Investment Symposium on Mon-Wed, FT Global Commodities Summit on Tuesday, Japan New Economy Summit 2013 (NES) on Tue, IN3 Medical Device 360 on Tue-Wed, LNG 17 Conference on Tue-Thursday, and HDI Annual 2013 Conference & Expo on Wed-Thursday.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM13 +0.78%) this morning are up +7.75 (+0.50%) on a rebound after yesterday's sharp -2.30% loss. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed sharply lower on (1) the weaker-than-expected Chinese Q1 GDP report of +7.7%, (2) the weaker-than-expected U.S. NAHB and Empire manufacturing index reports (3) the terrorist bombings in Boston, and (4) long liquidation pressure after the long rally seen since November. Closes: S&P 500 -2.30%, Dow Jones -1.79%, Nasdaq 100 -2.07%.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
- Goldman Sachs (GS -1.78%) reported Q1 EPS of $4.29, which was substantially better than the market consensus of $3.87.
- BlackRock (BLK -3.52%) reported Q1 EPS of $3.65, which was better than the market consensus of $3.57.
- US Bancorp (USB -2.26%) reported Q1 EPS of 70 cents, which was better than the market consensus of 68 cents.
- Coca-Cola (KO -2.41%) reported Q1 EPS of 46 cents, which was better than the consensus of 44 cents.
- Northern Trust (NTRS -3.29%) reported Q1 EPS of 71 cents, which was slightly below the consensus of 72 cents.
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -1.24%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.44, which was better than the consensus of $1.39.
- Brown & Brown (BRO -2.08%) rallied 2% in after-hours trading after reporting Q1 EPS of 41 cents, slightly above the consensus of 39 cents.
- Pep Boys (PBY -3.68%) rallied 2% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected finanical results.
- HCA Holdings (HCA -4.18%) fell 4% in after-hours trading on disappointment with the company's Q1's revenue guidance, although the company reiterated full-year EPS guidance.
- A.O. Smith (AOS -4.04%) raised its quarterly dividend by 20% and announced a 2-for-1 stock split.
MARKET COMMENTS
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM13 -0.15%) this morning are down 4 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with today's +0.50% upward rebound in June E-mini S&Ps. June 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday settled slightly higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic reports and on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks and the global commodity markets. Closes: TYM3 +2, FVM3 +0.25.The dollar index (DXY00 -0.36%) this morning is down -0.24 points (-0.29%) on reduced safe-haven demand, while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0067 (+0.51%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +1.03 yen (+1.06%). The dollar index on Monday closed mildly higher on increased safe-haven demand, while EUR/USD was undercut by increased risk concerns with the plunge in U.S. stocks. Closes: Dollar index +0.11 (+0.13%), EUR/USD -0.0077 (-0.59%), USD/JPY -1.60 (-1.63%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK13 -0.07%) this morning is down -0.37 (-0.42%) and May gasoline (RBK13 +0.11%) is down -0.0030 (-0.11%). May crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply again on Monday on heavy selling of the commodity sector in general with the melt-down in precious metals prices. Crude oil and gasoline prices were also undercut by fuel demand concerns with the weak Chinese Q1 GDP report of +7.7% and the weaker-than-expected U.S. NAHB and Empire reports. Closes: CLK3 -2.58 (-2.83%), RBK3 -0.0442 (-1.58%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/16/2013
| US | 0800 ET | New York Fed President William Dudley speaks about the economy at the Staten Island Chamber of Commerce. |
| 0830 ET | March CPI expected unch m/m and +1.6%, Feb +0.7% m/m and +2.0% y/y. March core CPI expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0%, Feb +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y. | |
| 0830 ET | March housing starts expected +1.4% to 930,000, Feb expected +0.8% to 917,000. March building permits expected +0.4% to 943,000, Feb +3.9% to 939,000. | |
| 0915 ET | March industrial production expected +0.2% m/m, Feb +0.8% m/m. March manufacturing production expected +0.1% m/m, Feb +0.8% m/m. March capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 78.4%, Feb 78.3%. | |
| 1200 ET | Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks to the American Bankers Association Government Relations Summit. | |
| 1500 ET | Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen moderates a panel discussion on monetary policy at IMF headquarters in Washington D.C. | |
| 1630 ET | API weekly U.S. oil statistics. | |
| 1700 ET | Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis at luncheon hosted by Market Technicians Association. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | March Tokyo condo sales, Feb -10.9% y/y. |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK March PPI input (nsa) expected -0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Feb +3.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. March PPI output (nsa) expected +0.3% m/m and +2.0o% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +2.3% y/y. March PPI output core expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Feb +0.3% m/m and +1.3% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK March CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y, Feb +0.7% m/m and +2.8% y/y. March core CPI expected unchanged at 2.3% y/y, Feb +2.3% y/y. March RPI expected +0.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Feb +0.7% m/m and +3.2% y/y. March PI ex-mortgage interest payments expected unchanged at +3.2% y/y, Feb +3.2% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Feb ONS house price index, Feb +2.2% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone March CPI expected +1.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Feb +0.4% m/m. March core CPI expected +1.4% y/y, Feb +1.3% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | Eurozone April Zew economic sentiment, March 33.4. | |
| GER | 0500 ET | German April Zew current situation expected +0.4 to 14.0, March 13.6. April Zew economic sentiment expected -7.5 to 41.0, March 48.5. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/16/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | Time | Event Description | Period | EPS Est (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coca-Cola Co/The | KO US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.444 |
| Comerica Inc | CMA US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.678 |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 1.391 |
| Northern Trust Corp | NTRS US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.716 |
| TD Ameritrade Holding Corp | AMTD US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2013 Earnings Release | Q2 2013 | 0.26 |
| BlackRock Inc | BLK US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 3.574 |
| US Bancorp | USB US | 7:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.73 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The | GS US | 7:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 3.868 |
| Comerica Inc | CMA US | 8:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| WW Grainger Inc | GWW US | 8:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 2.748 |
| WW Grainger Inc | GWW US | 8:00 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Brown & Brown Inc | BRO US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| US Bancorp | USB US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| TD Ameritrade Holding Corp | AMTD US | 8:30 | Q2 2013 Earnings Call | Q2 2013 | |
| BlackRock Inc | BLK US | 8:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Whirlpool Corp | WHR US | 9:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| ITC Holdings Corp | ITC US | 9:00 | Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Coca-Cola Co/The | KO US | 9:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Stanley Black & Decker Inc | SWK US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The | GS US | 9:30 | Q1 2013 Earnings Call | Q1 2013 | |
| Moody's Corp | MCO US | 9:30 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| CSX Corp | CSX US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.399 |
| Intel Corp | INTC US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.405 |
| Linear Technology Corp | LLTC US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.426 |
| Yahoo! Inc | YHOO US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.251 |
| United Rentals Inc | URI US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2013 Earnings Release | Q1 2013 | 0.478 |
| M&T Bank Corp | MTB US | Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting | Y 2013 |
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