Barchart Morning Call 3/19

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Mon Mar 19, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.31% and Jun S&Ps down -2.40 points. Treasuries and the dollar are higher while stocks and commodities retreated on European sovereign debt concerns. The IMF said Greece remains "accident prone" and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from Euro-Zone countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to its most recent 130 billion-euro bailout. IMF Managing Director Lagarde also warned that high oil prices, debt levels, and the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets threaten global economic stability. The euro and stocks also weakened after the CEO of PIMCO, Mohamed El-Erian, said Portugal will probably become a second Greece as its current rescue package will prove insufficient and the country will ask the Euro-Zone for more money. On the positive side, the cost for European banks to borrow in dollars declined to the lowest in 7-1/2 months as the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro interest payments into dollars, fell to 58 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the lowest since Aug 4.
• Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.12%, China +0.25%, Australia +0.34%, South Korea +0.75%, India -1.10%. Most Asian stocks finished higher, although well off of their best levels, after IMF Managing Director Lagarde warned of the risk of slowing growth in emerging markets and after home prices in China posted their worst performance in a year. A rally in semiconductor stocks boosted most Asian markets after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest contract manufacturer of chips, said that it may raise capital spending this year amid rising demand. Chinese property developers and builders weakened as Feb China new home prices fell in 27 of 70 cities from a year earlier, the worst since the government began at the start of 2011 releasing individual data for 70 cities instead of a national average.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• June S&Ps this morning are trading down -2.40 points. The U.S. stock market Friday settled mixed after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence tempered optimism about economic growth: Dow Jones -0.15%, S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq Composite -0.04%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high and the Dow rose to a 4-year high. Bullish factors Thursday included (1) a lack of inflation pressures after the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb core CPI (+0.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.2% m/m), (2) strength in raw material and energy producers as most commodity prices rose on optimism commodity demand will increase as the economy grows, and (3) reduced concerns about the European banking system after the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of European banks' reluctance to lend, fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 51 bp.
• Bearish factors Friday included (1) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence (-1.0 to 74.3, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 76.0) and (2) a slump in airline stocks as a rally in crude fueled concern that higher jet fuel costs will eat into their profit margins, and (3) the increase in the 10-year T-note yield to a 4-1/2 month high of 2.359%.
• Apple (AAPL) rose 2.5% in pre-market trading on speculation the company may announce the payment of a dividend for the first time when it discusses its $97.6 billion holdings of cash and investments at a conference call later this morning.

Today's Market Focus

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +6.5 ticks. T-note prices Friday posted a fresh 4-1/2 month low and settled lower on hawkish Fed commentary along with reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM2 -7.5, FVM2 -3.2, EDU2 +1.5. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 2.359%. Bearish factors Friday included (1) hawkish comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said "the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, and inflation is close to the committee's 2% objective, so as the expansion continues, the federal funds rate will need to rise in order to prevent the emergence of inflationary pressures" and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the S&P 500 climbed to a new 3-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb core CPI (+0.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.2% m/m) and (2) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence (-1.0 to 74.3, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 76.0).
• The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.33 yen and the euro/dollar -0.12 cents. The dollar index Friday fell back and settled lower after weaker-than-expected U.S. core consumer prices reduced concern the Fed will raise interest rates along with an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence: Dollar Index -0.364, USD/JPY -0.119, EUR/USD +0.00914. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected +0.1% m/m increase in Feb core CPI, which dampens concern the Fed will raise interest rates, (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of European banks' reluctance to lend, fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 51 bp, and (3) the unexpected decline in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) dollar supportive comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said the Fed will need to raise interest rates sooner than 2014 to stem inflation pressures and (2) hawkish comments from ECB Council member Liikanen that boosted the euro when he said the ECB may not take further action to fight Europe's debt turmoil.
• Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -38 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is -0.94 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday settled higher as the dollar faltered and after Feb core CPI increased less than expected: CLJ12 +$1.95, RBJ +6.84. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar which prompts investment demand in commodities and (2) the smaller-than-expected +0.1% m/m increase in Feb core CPI, which reduces concern the Fed will need to raise interest rates. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected drop in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which raises concern about the sustainability of the economic recovery and energy demand and (2) API data that showed total U.S. delivery of petroleum products in Feb, a measure of demand, fell -2.3% y/y to 18.4 million barrels a day, a 3-year low for the month of Feb.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): ADBE-Adobe Systems (BEST earnings consensus $0.57), FMCN-Focus Media Holding Ltd. (0.62), IOC-InterOil (0.02).
Global Financial Calendar

Monday 3/19/12
United States
0835 ET	New York Fed President William Dudley speaks about the regional and national economy before the Long Island Association.
1000 ET	Mar NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 30, Feb +4 to 29.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Jan Euro-Zone current account (seasonally adjusted), Dec +2.0 billion euros.
0600 ET	Jan Euro-Zone construction output, Dec +0.3% m/m and +7.8% y/y.
1300 ET	ECB Council member Ewald Nowotny participates in a panel discussion at Vienna?s University of Economics.
Canada
0830 ET	Jan Canada wholesale sales expected +0.4% m/m, Dec +0.9% m/m.

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