Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
Global Financial Calendar
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- Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down % and Jun S&Ps down -0.20 of a point. The dollar is lower, Treasuries are little changed and commodities are mixed as European stocks relinquished early gains and moved lower after Germany's Bundesbank said it won't accept bank bonds guaranteed by Ireland, Greece and Portugal as collateral. Moody's Investors Service said "this announcement marks a step towards divergent collateral rules and raises questions about policy cohesiveness among Euro-Zone central banks and this is credit negative for Euro-Zone sovereigns and banking systems overall, but particularly for those of Greece, Ireland and Portugal." European Stocks had initially rallied after China's Mar PMI manufacturing unexpectedly expanded by its fastest pace in a year, while Mar German PMI manufacturing was unexpectedly revised up to 48.4 from the originally reported 48.1. The British pound rallied to a 4-1/2 month high against the dollar after Mar U.K. PMI manufacturing unexpectedly increased +0.6 to 52.1, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 50.7 and its fastest pace of growth in 11-months.
- Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.26%, China closed for holiday, Australia -0.14%, South Korea +0.90%, India +0.42%. Asian stocks finished higher after an increase in Chinese manufacturing activity reduced concern over a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The Mar China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +2.1 to 53.1, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 50.8 and its strongest pace of growth in a year. The yen gained against the dollar and Japanese stocks finished higher despite stagnation in sentiment among Japan's largest manufacturers. The Q1 Japan Tankan large manufacturers index was -4, weaker than expectations of -1 and unchanged from Q4. South Korea's Kospi Stock Index finished higher after Mar South Korea CPI rose +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.2% y/y and the slowest pace in 20 months, and after Moody's Investor's Service raised its outlook on the country's A1 credit rating to positive from stable.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading little changed, down -0.20 of a point. The U.S. stock market Friday settled mostly higher and was bolstered by the larger-than-expected increases in personal spending and consumer confidence along with the action by European finance ministers to boost their rescue fund: Dow Jones +0.50%, S&P 500 +0.37%, Nasdaq Composite -0.12%. Bullish factors Friday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb personal spending which rose by the most in 7 months (+0.8% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to its best level in 13-months (+1.9 to 76.2 versus expectations of +0.3 to 74.6), (3) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after European finance ministers agreed to increase their rescue lending funds.
- Bearish factors Friday included (1) the +0.2% increase in Feb personal income, weaker than expectations of +0.4%, which raises concern about the sustainability of consumer spending, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Chicago PMI (-1.8 to 62.2 versus expectations of -1.0 to 63.0), and (3) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said "we should not anticipate additional accommodation" and that the Fed may have to raise interest rates before the end of 2014.
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1 tick. T-note prices Friday gyrated on either side of unchanged into late morning when they climbed to a 2-1/2 week high but then tumbled into the close and settled lower after the Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence rose to its highest level in 13-months and stocks rallied: TYM2 -13.5, FVM2 -4.0, EDU2 unchanged. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb personal spending which rose by the most in 7 months (+0.8% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to its best level in 13-months (+1.9 to 76.2 versus expectations of +0.3 to 74.6), (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks rallied after European finance ministers agreed to increase their rescue lending funds, and (4) hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser who said "we should not anticipate additional accommodation" and that the Fed may have to raise interest rates before the end of 2014. Bullish factors Friday included (1) the +0.2% increase in Feb personal income, weaker than expectations of +0.4%, which raises concern about the sustainability of consumer spending, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Chicago PMI (-1.8 to 62.2 versus expectations of -1.0 to 63.0), and (3) the Fed's purchase of $2.09 billion of long-term Treasuries as part of it Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its holdings with longer maturities in an attempt to keep borrowing costs down.
- The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.23 yen and the euro/dollar +0.01 cents. The dollar index Friday tumbled to a 1-month low and settled lower as stocks rallied and after European finance ministers agreed to increase their rescue lending fund: Dollar Index -0.182, USD/JPY +0.379, EUR/USD +0.00384. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as stocks rallied, (2) the action by European finance ministers to increase their rescue lending fund to 800 billion euros, which may help stem the European debt crisis and us euro supportive, and (3) is a rally in the yen to a 3-week high against the dollar on speculation Japanese companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to a 13-month high, which is dollar supportive and (2) dollar positive comments from Richmond Fed President Lacker who said the Fed is "really far" from the need for more stimulus.
- May crude oil prices this morning are down -50 cents a barrel and May gasoline is +0.53 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday settled mixed as a weaker dollar and better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence and personal spending boosted crude, but gasoline fell on late-day profit taking and closed lower: CLK12 +$0.24, RBK -3.16. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to a 13-month high, which is positive for fuel demand, and (3) the action by Euro-Zone finance ministers to increase its rescue lending fund to 800 billion euros, which may help stem the European debt crisis and keep economic growth and fuel demand from falling. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Mar Chicago PMI and the unexpected decline in Feb Japan industrial production, which signals reduced energy consumption and (2) Bloomberg data that shows OPEC Mar crude production rose 110,000 barrels a day to 31.22 million barrels a day, the most since Oct 2008.
Global Financial Calendar
| Monday 4/2/12 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 1000 ET | Feb construction spending expected +0.7%, Jan -0.1% m/m. |
| 1000 ET | Mar ISM manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 53.1, Feb -1.7 to 52.4. Mar ISM prices paid sub-index expected +0.8 to 62.3, Feb +6.0 to 61.5. |
| 1130 ET | Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions. |
| 1235 ET | Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on ?The Fed and the Economy: Striving for Stability? at an event in Marietta, Ohio. |
| France | |
| 0350 ET | Revised Mar French PMI manufacturing expected no change at 47.6. |
| Germany | |
| 0355 ET | Revised Mar German PMI manufacturing expected no change at 48.1. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0430 ET | Mar U.K. PMI manufacturing expected -0.5 to 50.7, Feb -0.8 to 51.2. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0500 ET | Feb Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 10.8%, Jan +0.1 to 10.7%. |
| CHI | |
| 2100 ET | Mar China non-manufacturing PMI, Feb -4.5 to 48.4. |
| Japan | |
| 2130 ET | Feb Japan labor cash earnings expected +0.1% y/y, Jan unchanged y/y. |
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