Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
Global Financial Calendar
Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.
- Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.08% and Sep S&Ps up +1.00 point. The dollar index fell to a 2-week low and commodities are mixed with copper rising to a 1-3/4 month high as Greek default concerns eased. The euro climbed to a 2-1/2 week high against the dollar when people familiar with the matter said that Germany's biggest banks, insurers and the government have agreed on a proposal to roll over Greek debt. German unemployment in Jun fell -8,000, its 24th straight monthly decline, although weaker than expectations of a -17,000 drop, while the Jun unemployment rate remained at 7.0%, the lowest since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991. Inflation concerns eased after the Jun Euro-Zone CPI estimate remained unchanged at +2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.8% y/y, while May French producer prices unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase. European stocks weakened after May German retail sales unexpectedly fell -2.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% m/m gain and the biggest monthly decline in 3 years. Another negative factor for stocks was the unexpected decline in May French consumer spending which fell -1.5% m/m, its third consecutive monthly decline and weaker than expectations of a +1.0% m/m increase.
- The Asian stock markets today closed higher with Japan up +0.19%, Hong Kong +1.53%, China +1.46%, Taiwan +0.92%, Australia +1.73%, Singapore +1.32%, South Korea +0.20%, India +0.81%. Asian stocks were boosted as concerns about Europe's debt crisis eased after Greece passed austerity measures and German financial institutions pushed toward an agreement to roll over Greek debt holdings. Sony, which gets 21% of its sales in Europe, closed 3% higher and Japanese bank stocks rallied after Deutsche Bank AG upgraded Japan's major banks to "overweight" from "market weight," saying Q1 earnings may show "good progress" and concern is receding that lenders will need to raise additional capital. Japanese utilities also moved higher after Kyodo News reported that the Japanese town of Genkai will let Kyushu Electric Power restart reactors, which eases concern local opposition to nuclear power will damage the industry. Chinese banks closed higher and rebounded from Wednesday's losses after a Shanghai government spokesman said the Hong Kong Economic Journal article that claimed a financing vehicle of the Shanghai government may not be able to repay loans was "seriously untrue."
- September S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.00 point. The US stock market yesterday rallied for a third day as Greece passed austerity measures and US pending home sales increased more than forecast: Dow Jones +0.60%, S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq Composite +0.41%. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all posted 3-week highs. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in financial companies on reduced European debt concerns after Greek lawmakers passed austerity measures to ensure they receive future aid to avoid a debt default, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in May US pending home sales which rose at their strongest pace in 6 months (+8.2% m/m versus expectations of +3.0% m/m), and (3) strength in energy producers after crude oil climbed to a 1-1/2 week high.
- Bearish factors for stocks included (1) comments from Bank of America chief economist Levy who said that Greece faces an "eventual insolvency problem" and that the passage of the Greek austerity measures buys the country time but "does not resolve the issue," and (2) the increase in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-month high of 3.129%.
- September 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday ratcheted lower the entire day and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Greek lawmakers passed an austerity plan to ensure further bailout funds along with supply pressures as the Treasury auctioned $29 billion of 7-year T-notes: TYU11 -1-2.5, FVU11 -24.5, EDZ11 unchanged. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-month high of 3.129%. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the Greek parliament passed austerity measures to help it avert a default, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in May US pending home sales which rose at their strongest pace in 6 months (+8.2% m/m versus expectations of +3.0% m/m), and (3) slack demand for the Treasury's $29 billion auction of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62, well below the 12-auction average of 2.89. A bullish factor was the Fed's purchase of $2.456 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
- The dollar index this morning is weaker and at a 2-week low with the dollar/yen -0.33 yen and the euro/dollar +0.41 cents. The dollar index yesterday declined after the passage of austerity measures by Greek lawmakers reduced concerns of a Greek debt default along with a rally in the euro to a 2-week high against the dollar on speculation the ECB will increase interest rates at next week's policy meeting: Dollar Index -0.372, USDJPY -0.346, EURUSD +0.00638. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the Greek parliament passed austerity measures needed to ensure future bailout funds, and (2) a rally in the euro on speculation the ECB will raise interest rates at next Thursday's policy meeting, which will strengthen the euro's interest rate differentials against the dollar. Bullish factors included (1) comments from ECB Executive member Stark that may boost the safe-haven demand of the dollar when he said that a restructuring of Greek debt would lead to a collapse of the country?s economy and damage the EU's reputation and may prompt investors to question the creditworthiness of other Euro-Zone countries, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in May US pending home sales, which shows economic strength and is dollar supportive.
- Aug crude oil prices this morning are down -15 cents a barrel and Aug gasoline is -1.39 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied after Greek lawmakers passed austerity measures needed to avoid default along with a larger-than-expected drop in weekly DOE crude inventories: CLQ11 +$1.88, RBQ11 +11.93. Aug crude posted a 1-1/2 week high and Aug gasoline climbed to a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which encourages investment demand in commodities, (2) reduced concerns that the Greek debt crisis will drag the global economy and energy demand lower after Greek lawmakers voted to approve an austerity plan to stave off a debt default, (3) the larger-than-expected drop in weekly crude inventories (-4.38 million bbl versus expectations of -1.5 million bbl), and (4) the unexpected decline in gasoline stockpiles (-1.43 million bbl versus expectations of +1.05 million bbl). Bearish factors included (1) slack fuel demand after US gasoline demand in the week ended Jun 24 fell -0.6% to 9.26 million barrels a day, and (2) the prediction from JBC Energy GmbH that Saudi Arabia will increase crude output "substantially in the foreseeable future" even after the IEA released oil stockpiles.
Global Financial Calendar
| Thursday 6/30/11 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -9,000 to 420,000, previous +9,000 to 429,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -7,000 to 3.690 million, previous -1,000 to 3.697 million. |
| 0945 ET | Jun Chicago purchasing managers index expected -2.6 to 54.0, May -11.0 to 56.6. |
| 1000 ET | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers ?Welcoming Remarks and Thoughts on QE? at the St. Louis Fed?s QE Conference. |
| 1300 ET | Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks to the Rotary Club of Des Moines, Iowa. |
| 1630 ET | Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet. |
| Japan | |
| 0000 ET | May Japan vehicle production, Apr -60.1% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | May Japan construction orders, Apr +31.4% y/y. |
| 0100 ET | May Japan housing starts expected +3.1% y/y, Apr +0.3% y/y/ |
| 1930 ET | May Japan overall household spending expected -1.7% y/y, Apr -3.0% y/y. |
| 1930 ET | May Japan jobless rate expected +0.1 to 4.8%, Apr +0.1 to 4.7%. May job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.60, Apr 0.61. |
| 1930 ET | Jun Tokyo CPI expected -0.1% y/y, May -0.1% y/y. Jun Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.2% y/y, May +0.1% y/y. Jun Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% y/y, May +0.1% y/y. |
| 1930 ET | May Japan national CPI expected +0.2% y/y, Apr +0.3% y/y. May national CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.5% y/y, Apr +0.6% y/y. May national CPI ex food & energy expected unchanged y/y, Apr -0.1% y/y. |
| 1950 ET | Q2 Japan Tankan large manufactures index expected -7, Q1 6. Q2 Tankan non-manufacturing index expected 4, Q1 3. |
| Germany | |
| 0200 ET | May German retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y. |
| 0355 ET | Jun German unemployment change expected -17,000, May -8,000. Jun unemployment rate expected unchanged at 7.0%, May -0.1 to 7.0%. |
| France | |
| 0245 ET | May French consumer spending expected +1.0% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Apr -1.6% m/m and +1.2% y/y. |
| 0245 ET | May French producer prices expected +0.2% m/m and +6.4% y/y, Apr +0.8% m/m and +6.4% y/y. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0300 ET | ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels. |
| 0400 ET | May Euro-Zone M2 money supply expected +2.1% 3-mo avg and +2.1% y/y, Apr +2.1% 3-mo avg and +2.0% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | Jun Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.8% y/y, May +2.7% y/y. |
| Canada | |
| 0830 ET | Apr Canada GDP expected -0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y. |
| CHI | |
| 2100 ET | Jun China PMI manufacturing expected -0.5 to 51.5, May -0.9 to 52.0. |
No comments:
Post a Comment