Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
Global Financial Calendar
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- Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.23% and June S&Ps up +3.80 points. Treasuries and the dollar are little changed while commodities extended this week's fall with crude oil sliding to a 2-1/4 month low and copper dropping to a 5-month low on concern economic growth is faltering. ECB President Trichet said policy makers remain "extremely alert" on inflation, and indicated they may take further decisions on interest rates when they have new economic projections in June. European stocks received a boost after German industrial production rose for a third month. Mar German industrial production rose +0.7% m/m and +11.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.3% y/y.
- The Asian stock markets today closed mostly lower with Japan down -1.45%, Hong Kong -0.44%, China -0.15%, Taiwan -0.46%, Australia -0.23%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea -1.66%, India +1.69%. Asian stock markets fell, with China's Shanghai Stock Index declining to a 2-1/2 month low, after the surge in US jobless fueled concern the world's biggest economy may be weakening. Japanese exporters led declines in Japanese stocks as the yen held just below a 1-1/2 month high and most Asian energy and raw material producers fell as commodities extended their slide. The Australian dollar strengthened after the RBA in its quarterly review today said higher interest rates will likely be needed "at some point" to contain inflation that's predicted to accelerate this year faster than previously forecast. The RBA hiked its forecast for consumer prices this year to increase by +3.25% from an earlier estimate of +3.00% and core inflation to quicken to +3.00% from +2.75%.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.80 points ahead of Apr nonfarm payrolls. The US stock market yesterday settled lower as an unexpected increase in weekly jobless claims offset a plunge in oil prices that fueled gains in consumer and transportation stocks: Dow Jones -0.66%, S&P 500 -0.69%, Nasdaq Composite -0.47%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell to 2-week lows while the Dow slipped to a 1-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims to an 8-1/2 month high (+43,000 to 474,000 versus expectations of -19,000 to 410,000), (2) comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who said "there is virtually no net job creation resulting from new business formation in recent quarters," (3) weakness in energy and raw-material companies after dollar strength prompted a broad-based plunge in commodities, and (4) hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who said it would be "desirable" to raise interest rates this year and that he would support a 50 bp increase in the Fed funds rate.
- Bullish factors for stocks included (1) reduced inflation concerns after the larger-than-expected increase in Q1 nonfarm productivity and the upward revision to Q4 (Q1 +1.6% versus expectations of +1.1% and Q4 revised up to +2.9% from the previously reported +2.6%), (2) strength in transportation and consumer companies after crude oil plunged to a 1-1/2 month low, and (3) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said a period of high inflation is "very unlikely" because rising commodity prices spurred by global demand aren?t likely to keep climbing.
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3 ticks. T-note prices yesterday moved higher as inflation concerns receded after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly increased and commodity prices tumbled: TYM11 +13.5, FVM11 +7.5, EDU11 +0.5. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-1/2 month low of 3.151%. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims to an 8-1/2 month high (+43,000 to 474,000 versus expectations of -19,000 to 410,000), (2) reduced inflation concerns after the larger-than-expected increase in Q1 nonfarm productivity and the upward revision to Q4 (Q1 +1.6% versus expectations of +1.1% and Q4 revised up to +2.9% from the previously reported +2.6%), (3) comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who said "there is virtually no net job creation resulting from new business formation in recent quarters," and (4) comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said a period of high inflation is "very unlikely" because rising commodity prices spurred by global demand aren?t likely to keep climbing. A bearish factor was the comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who said it would be "desirable" to raise interest rates this year and that he would support a 50 bp increase in the Fed funds rate.
- The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen +0.17 yen and the euro/dollar -0.18 cents. The dollar index yesterday rebounded to a 1-week high after the euro tumbled when ECB President Trichet signaled the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again: Dollar Index +1.163, USDJPY -0.443, EURUSD -0.03038. Bullish factors included (1) comments from ECB President Trichet, which were less hawkish than the markets were expecting, when he refrained from using the phrase "strong vigilance" against inflation, which signals the ECB may wait until after its June meeting to raise interest rates further, (2) the unexpected drop in Mar German factory orders, which is euro negative, and (3) the drop in the British pound to a 2-week low against the dollar after Apr UK PMI services fell more than expected to a 4-month low. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly US jobless claims to an 8-1/2 month high, which signals economic weakness and may prompt the Fed to maintain its overly easy monetary policy, and (2) strength in the yen which rallied to a 1-1/2 month high against the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Noda said the recent rally in the yen is due to dollar weakness, which signals the BOJ may refrain from further currency intervention to weaken the yen.
- June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -$2.00 a barrel at a 2-1/4 month low and June gasoline is -2.38 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday sold-off sharply as the dollar rebounded and an unexpected increase in weekly jobless claims bolstered demand concerns: CLM11 -$9.44, RBM11 -11.71. Jun crude fell to a 1-1/2 month low and Jun gasoline dropped to a 1-month low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to 1-week high, which prompted long liquidation of most commodities, (2) the unexpected increase in weekly US jobless claims to an 8-1/2 month high, which fuels concern that economic growth and fuel demand will decline, and (3) the unexpected drop in Mar German factory orders, which indicates weakened energy consumption.
Global Financial Calendar
| Friday 5/6/11 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0730 ET | Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen speaks on ?Finance and Economic Growth? at the Bank of Finland?s 200th Anniversary Conference in Helsinki. |
| 0830 ET | Apr nonfarm payrolls expected +185,000, Mar +216,000. Apr private payrolls (ex government and temporary census workers) expected +200,000, Mar +230,000. Apr unemployment rate expected unchanged at 8.8%, Mar ?0.1 to 8.8%. Apr manufacturing payrolls expected +20,000, Mar +17,000. Apr avg hourly earnings all employees expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Mar unchanged m/m and +1.7% y/y. Apr avg weekly hours all employees expected unchanged at 34.3 hours, Mar unchanged at 34.3 hours. |
| 1000 ET | New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the New York Fed?s quarterly economic press briefing. |
| 1145 ET | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the U.S. economy to Arkansas bankers at an event in Little Rock, AR. |
| 1500 ET | Mar consumer credit expected +$5.000 billion, Feb +$7.617 billion. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0430 ET | Apr UK PPI input prices expected +1.6% m/m and +16.4% y/y, Mar +3.7% m/m and +14.6% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | Apr UK PPI output prices expected +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Mar +0.9% m/m and +5.4% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | Apr UK PPI output core prices expected +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y, Mar +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y. |
| Germany | |
| 0600 ET | Mar German industrial production expected +0.5% m/m +10.3% y/y, Feb +1.6% m/m and +14.8% y/y. |
| Canada | |
| 0700 ET | Apr Canada net change in employment expected +20,000, Mar -1,500. Apr unemployment rate expected unchanged at 7.7%, Mar -0.1 to 7.7%. |
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