Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
Global Financial Calendar
Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.
- Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index closed for Easter Monday holiday, while June S&Ps are up +3.60 points. Treasuries are up slightly and the dollar weakened, which has prompted gains in commodities with gold posting yet another record high. Oil prices rose as escalating violence in the Middle East and Africa threatens to prolong supply disruptions. Crude oil prices also gained after a Saudi Arabian oil official said his country's oil output will stay at 12.5 million barrels a day, squashing rumors that the country was considering hiking output to 15 million barrels a day.
- The Asian stock markets today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.11%, China -1.53%, Taiwan -0.21%, Singapore -0.22%, South Korea +0.64%, India -0.09% Asian stock markets were undercut after China International Capital Corp. said that China's consumer prices may accelerate to +5/5% y/y this month. Japanese stocks also weakened after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the BOJ may cut its forecast for GDP growth in half for fiscal 2011 to +0.8% annualized from +1.6% annualized as a result of last month's earthquake crisis. Japanese automakers fell after Honda reported a 63% drop in auto production last month and Toyota reported a 30% decline in global auto output due to last month's earthquake. India's Sensex 30 Stock Index closed lower, led by a 3% drop in Reliance Industries, India's biggest company, after it reported Q1 net income of 53.8 billion rupees ($1.2 billion), below analysts' projections of 54.3 billion rupees. Korean automakers rose, which led South Korea's Kospi 200 Stock Index higher, after Kia Motors said it sold a record number of vehicles in Q1.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.60 points. The US stock market last Thursday closed higher as stronger-than-expected company earnings results trumped weaker-than-expected economic data: Dow Jones +0.42%, S&P 500 +0.53%, Nasdaq Composite +0.63%. The Dow climbed to a 2-3/4 year high, the Nasdaq posted a 2-1/4 month high and the S&P 500 posted a 1-1/2 week high. Bullish factors included (1) continued strong company earnings results as 81% of the 115 companies in the S&P 500 that posted earnings results since Apr 11 have beaten estimates, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar leading indicators which have risen for 9 straight months along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +0.4% versus expectations of +0.3% and Feb revised up to +1.0% from he originally reported increase of +0.8%), and (3) strength in mining and raw-material companies as gold surged to an all-time high and silver soared to a 31-year high.
- Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims (-13,000 to 403,000 versus expectations of -22,000 to 390,000), (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which fell to its lowest level in 5 months (-24.9 to 18.5 versus expectations of -7.0 to 36.4), and (3) the larger-than-expected decline in Feb FHFA home prices along with the downward revision to Jan (Feb -1.6% m/m versus expectations of -0.3% m/m and Jan revised down to -1.0% m/m from the originally reported -0.3% m/m).
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +2.5 ticks. T-note prices last Thursday finished higher as weaker-than-expected economic data offset the negative effects of a strong stock market: TYM11 +2.5, FVM11 +0.5, EDU11 +0.5. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected decrease in weekly initial unemployment claims (-13,000 to 403,000 versus expectations of -22,000 to 390,000), (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which fell to its lowest level in 5 months (-24.9 to 18.5 versus expectations of -7.0 to 36.4), and (3) the larger-than-expected decline in Feb FHFA home prices along with the downward revision to Jan (Feb -1.6% m/m versus expectations of -0.3% m/m and Jan revised down to -1.0% m/m from the originally reported -0.3% m/m). Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar leading indicators which have risen for 9 straight months along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +0.4% versus expectations of +0.3% and Feb revised up to +1.0% from the originally reported increase of +0.8%), and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied.
- The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen +0.06 yen and the euro/dollar +0.58 cents. The dollar index last Thursday dropped to a 2-2/3 year low as weaker-than-expected US economic data fueled speculation the Fed will keep its overly easy monetary policy intact and further weaken the dollar's interest rate differentials: Dollar Index -0.373, USDJPY -0.708, EURUSD +0.00291. The yen climbed to a 3-week high against the dollar and the euro soared to a 16-month high. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected decline in weekly US jobless claims along with the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to a 5-month low, which hints at economic weakness and is dollar negative, (2) the rally in the British pound to a 16-month high against the dollar after Mar UK retail sales unexpectedly rose, and (3) supportive interest rate differentials for the euro after the 3-month Euribor rate rose to a 1-3/4 year high of 1.356%. Bullish factors included (1) the surge in yields on Greek, Portuguese and Irish government debt to euro-era records, which may boost the safe-haven demand for the dollar as it suggests a worsening of the European sovereign-debt crisis, and (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr German IFO business climate, which is euro negative.
- June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +45 cents a barrel and June gasoline is +1.53 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Thursday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and finished higher as the weak dollar offset the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index: CLM11 +$0.84, RBM11 +2.39. June crude rallied to a 1-1/2 week high and Jun gasoline posted a contract high and nearest-futures May gasoline climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in the dollar index to a 2-2/3 year low, which encourages investment demand in commodities, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 1-1/2 week high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Apr Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which fell to a 5-month low and suggests weakened energy demand, and (2) the smaller-than-expected drop in weekly US jobless claims, which indicates labor market weakness that may limit fuel demand.
Global Financial Calendar
| Monday 4/25/11 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 1000 ET | Mar new home sales expected +12.0% to 280,000, Feb -16.9% to 250,000 |
| 1130 ET | Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions. |
| Germany | |
| n/a | Markets closed for Easter Monday. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| n/a | Markets closed for Easter Monday. |
| United Kingdom | |
| n/a | Markets closed for Easter Monday. |
| France | |
| n/a | Markets closed for Easter Monday. |
No comments:
Post a Comment