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Global Financial Calendar
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- Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index down -0.53%, while June S&Ps are up +1.80 points. Treasuries and commodities are lower and the dollar is little changed. Crude oil fell over -$1.00 a barrel as the advance of Libyan rebels against Qaddafi's troops spurs hope the conflict in Africa's third-largest oil producer may end soon. A decline in European bank stocks is dragging the overall market lower on concern European banks need more capital. Treasuries are lower after St. Louis Fed President Bullard, speaking at a forum in Prague, said the Fed might need to tighten monetary policy before the outlook for the global economy clears up later this year. Limiting losses in European stocks was the stronger than expected Feb French consumer spending, which climbed +0.9% m/m and +5.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +4.8% y/y. German consumer confidence fell less than expected after the Apr German GfK consumer confidence survey fell -0.1 to 5.9, better than expectations of -0.2 to 5.8.
- The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.21%, Hong Kong -0.03%, China -0.99%, Taiwan +0.51%, Australia +0.47%, Singapore -0.01%, South Korea +0.77%, India +0.94%. Japanese stocks declined on concern over whether the country can contain its nuclear crisis and after Goldman Sachs predicted Japan's economy would contract next quarter as it cut its GDP forecast for Japan for the fiscal year starting Apr 1 to 0.7% from 1.3%. Concerns are rising that the increased radioactive pollution found at the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant could delay Japan's reconstruction recovery. Limiting declines in Japanese exporters was the decline in the yen to a 1-week low against the dollar, which may help boost exporters' profits.
- June S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.80 points. The US stock market yesterday traded higher until late in the session when it sank into the close and settled on its low: Dow Jones -0.19%, S&P 500 -0.27%, Nasdaq Composite -0.45%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted 2-week highs while the Dow climbed to a 3-week high, but they all shed their gains and finished lower. Bearish factors included (1) concern that Japan is failing to contain its nuclear crisis after the Deputy Director General of the IAEA said the discovery of plutonium particles outside the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant means there has been degradation of the nuclear fuel in at least one of its reactors, (2) weakness in hotel stocks after Marriott International, the largest US hotel chain, plunged after it said growth in revenue per available room in Q1 will be at the low end of its forecast because of weak North American demand, and (3) the rise in the 10-yer T-note yield to a 2-1/2 week high of 3.482%.
- Bullish factors for stocks included (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb personal spending which climbed for the eighth straight month and the unexpected upward revision to Jan (Feb +0.7% versus expectations of +0.6% and Dec revised up to +0.3% from the originally reported +0.2%), (2) the stronger-than-expected Feb pending home sales (+2.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.9% m/m), (3) a rally in solar stocks after Chancellor Merkel's party said that most of Germany's oldest atomic reactors will probably close following safety checks, which boosted alternative energy companies on a possible shift in Germany's energy policy after the anti-nuclear Green party gained widespread support in state elections on Sunday, and (4) strong M&A activity as takeovers have risen to $257 billion this quarter, the most since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in Q3 2008.
- Halliburton (HAL) fell 1.3% in European trading after the oil services provider said that disruptions in North Africa and the Middle East will "severely" cut Q1 results by 3 cents to 4 cents a share.
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading unchanged. T-note prices yesterday fell to a 2-1/2 week low and closed lower after hawkish Fed comments and slack demand for the Treasury's 2-year T-note auction: TYM11 -3.5, FVM11 -3.7, EDU11 -1.0. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Feb personal spending and the unexpected upward revision to Jan (Feb +0.7% versus expectations of +0.6% and Dec revised up to +0.3% from the originally reported +0.2%), (2) the stronger-than-expected Feb pending home sales (+2.1% m/m versus expectations of +0.9% m/m), (3) hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that policy makers should review halting the $600 billion QE2 asset-purchase program before its June completion because the economy may not require that much stimulus, (4) weak demand for the Treasury's $35 billion 2-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.16, below the 12-auction average of 3.33, and (5) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes on Tue. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after the yield on Portugal's 10-year bond climbed to a euro-era record of 7.94%, and (2) the Fed's action to purchase $6.753 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
- The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen +0.43 yen and the euro/dollar -0.10 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied to a 1-week high but shed its gains and closed slightly lower after hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet boosted the euro: Dollar Index -0.025, USDJPY +0.035, EURUSD -0.00016. Bearish factors included (1) euro supportive comments from ECB President Trichet who said "inflation rates are durably above the price stability target," which nearly cements an April interest rate hike from the ECB, and (2) hawkish comments from ECB Council member Quaden who said a "moderate" increase in interest rates won't stifle the economic recovery. Bullish factors included (1) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said that policy makers should review halting the $600 billion QE2 asset-purchase program before its June completion because the economy may not require that much stimulus, and (2) stronger-than-expected US economic data on Feb personal spending and Feb pending home sales, which signals economic strength and is dollar supportive.
- May crude oil prices this morning are trading down -$1.15 a barrel and May gasoline is -1.79 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower on speculation that recent victories by Libyan rebels may speed up a resolution to the country's armed conflict and put Libyan oil back on the market: CLK11 -$1.42, RBK11 -2.19. Bearish factors included (1) the action by Qatar to agree to market crude from east Libyan oil fields that are now controlled by rebel forces, which eases concern that Libyan oil exports will be disrupted for an extended period, and (2) concern that a recovery in Japan will be delayed after Japan's chief government spokesman said a partial meltdown of fuel rods in the No. 2 reactor probably caused a jump in radioactive readings that will further complicate containment of Japan's nuclear crisis. Bullish factors include (1) the reversal in the dollar after the dollar index fell back from a 1-week high and closed lower, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) comments from Algeria's Oil Minister that the oil market is "well supplied" and there is no need to compensate for a decline in Libya's output, and (3) the stronger-than-expected Feb US personal spending, which shows strength in the economy that may bolster fuel demand.
Global Financial Calendar
| Tuesday 3/29/11 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0600 ET | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at the 2011 European Banking & Financial Forum in Prague. |
| 0745 ET | ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales. |
| 0855 ET | Redbook weekly retailer sales. |
| 0900 ET | Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices index expected ?0.5% m/m and ?3.2% y/y, Dec ?0.4% m/m and ?2.4% y/y. |
| 1000 ET | Mar U.S. consumer confidence expected ?5.4 to 65.0, Feb +5.6 to 70.4. |
| 1130 ET | Weekly 4-week T-bill auction. |
| 1300 ET | Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes. |
| Germany | |
| 0200 ET | Apr German GfK consumer confidence survey expected ?0.2 to 5.8, Mar +0.2 to 6.0. |
| n/a | Mar German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Feb +0.6% m/m and +2.2% y/y. |
| France | |
| 0245 ET | Feb French consumer spending expected +0.5% m/m and +4.8% y/y, Jan ?0.5% m/m and +2.4% y/y. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0430 ET | Revised Q4 UK total business investment, previous ?2.5% q/q and +10.0% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | Revised Q4 UK GDP expected no change at ?0.6% q/q and +1.5% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | Feb UK net consumer credit expected ?0.1 billion pounds, Jan ?0.3 billion pounds. |
| 0430 ET | Feb UK mortgage approvals expected 46,300, Jan 45,700. |
| 0430 ET | Feb UK M4 money supply, Jan +0.8% m/m and ?1.7% y/y. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 1000 ET | ECB Council member Yves Mersch speaks at a conference in Luxembourg. |
| Japan | |
| 1950 ET | Preliminary Feb Japan industrial production expected -0.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Jan +1.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y. |
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