A T & T - Cash Cow

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND GRAPHS

For long term defensive income investors AT&T (T) has always been a cash cow with a capital MOO!  Long term income investors might want to consider this stock on the recent market weakness.  As you can see on this graph provided by Barchart the stock has had a bit of weakness in the last 6 month:

The stock has held up well during the past year as measured by the Value Line Index of 1700 stocks

Barchart technical indicators:

• Barchart uses technical indicators form 7 days to 6 months to determine the current direction of a stock's price momentum 
• At the present time the stock's price momentum is very weak
• A weakness in the price of a solid income stock can signal a good entry or accumulation point
• Barchart technical hold signal
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Trading below its 20 and 100 day moving averages but above its 50 day moving average
• The stock currently trades 9.92% below its 1 year high
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 28.52
• Relative Strength Index is 49.02% and currently falling
• Traded recently at 28.78 which is below its 50 day moving average of 28.89

Summary: AT&T (T) is definitely not a growth stock but income investors like the steady dividend of 5.92%.  The dividend appears to be secure and is expected to increase over the next 5 years.  I think the price to day is about a good as you will get in the near future and only bad news about the T-Mobile acquisition can drive the price down further.  It is now trading at the high range of its 14 day turtle channel as this Barchart graph shows:

Consolidated Edison - ED - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Consolidated Edison (ED)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Thu Dec 15, 5:23PM CST

Related Stocks

ED - Consolidated Edison Company Of New York

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
ED	59.98	+0.21	+0.35%

The "Chart of the Day" is Consolidated Edison (ED), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. ConEd on Thursday posted a new all-time high of $59.93 and closed +1.65%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Nov 30 at $59.42. In recent news on the stock, ConEd on Nov 3 reported Q3 EPS of $1.33, in line with the analyst consensus. ConEd on Oct 28 received downgrades to Underperform from Jefferies and RBC Capital due to valuation. Consolidated Edison of NY (ED), with a market cap of $17 billion, is one of the nation's largest investor-owned energy companies.


How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

• TrendSpotter: Buy
• Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
• Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Overall Average 96% Buy

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Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual

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Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Freemont -McMoRan still baffles me

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND GRAPHS


When I look at Freeport - McMoRan (FCX) I really get confused.  Here is a company that always has good revenue, earnings and cash flow numbers plus an A+ financial strength rating but has performed like a dog lately.  In the long run I think it might be a good buy but you need to be careful in how you play the stock.

Barchart technical indicators:

• Barchart uses technical indicators from 7 days to 6 month to determine the current price momentum of a stock
• Currently a 72% Barchart technical sell signal
• Trend Spotter hold trending to a sell
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 5.34% off its 1 month high
• 34.56% off its 1 year high
• Relative Strength Index 46.80%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.14
• Recently traded at 37.58 with a 50 day moving average of 37.93

Summary: In the long run I agree with the optimism expressed by both the professional and individual investors about Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) , however I think you will be able to pick up some shares a little cheaper down the road.  Right now commodity prices seem to be falling.  I think if you use a 14 day turtle chart like the one provided by Barchart below you might be able to buy on a dip.  If you do not like to watch the technical chart then I'd advise you to dollar cost average into this issue over the next 6 months

5 Great NASDQ 100 Stocks

This morning I used Barchart to screen the S&P NASDAQ 100 stocks that were having positive price momentum and came up with a nice list of winners:

Mylan (MYL)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 80% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 8.40% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 20.06
• Relative Strength Index 61.91
• Recently traded at 20.10 with a 50 day moving average of 18.65

Verisign (VRSN)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 60% Barchart short term buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.43
• Relative Strength Index 57.84
• Traded recently at 33.61 with a 50 day moving average of 32.93

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 60% Barchart short term technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 4 new highs and up .74% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 26.78
• Relative Strength Index 54.01%
• Recently traded at 27.09 with a 50 day moving average of 25.95

Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 4 new highs and up 4.80% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 67.15
• Recently traded at 42.34 with a 50 day moving average of 39.70

Starbucks (SBUX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 72% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 10 new highs and up 11.04% in the last quarter
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 43.05
• Relative Strength Index 53.70%
• Recently traded at 43.20 with a 50 day moving average of 42.43

Barchart Morning Call 12/15

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 2 hrs 10 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.72% and Mar S&Ps up +5.50 points. The dollar is weaker, which has boosted most commodities, while the euro rose against the dollar after Spain sold more than its maximum target at a debt sale today, easing concern the region's debt crisis is worsening. Spain sold 6 billion euros of bonds due in 2016, 2020, and 2021 today, exceeding a 3.5 billion-euro target. Stocks received a boost after the Dec Euro-Zone PMI composite index unexpectedly rose +0.9 to 47.9, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 46.5. In its monthly bulletin for Dec, the ECB said inflation pressures in the Euro-Zone should slow next year as the sovereign debt crisis dampens growth and that the global economy "may be weaker than expected." Stock gains were limited after the Dec U.K. CBI trends total orders, an index of factory orders, fell to -23, weaker than expectations of -20 and its weakest level in 14 months as the European debt crisis undermined export demand.
• Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -1.66%, China -2.36%, Australia 01.21%, South Korea -2.32%, India -0.28%. Asian stocks closed lower after sentiment among Japan's largest manufacturers deteriorated and after foreign investment in China declined for the first time in over 2 years. The Q4 Japan Tankan large manufacturers survey fell to -4, weaker than expectations of -2, while Nov China foreign direct investment slid -9.8% y/y to $8.76 billion, its first decline in 28 months. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell to a fresh 2-1/2 year low on signs that Chinese manufacturing in may contract for a second month after the Dec China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose +1.3 to 49.0 but remained below the 50.0 level of expansion and contraction.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +5.50 points. The US stock market yesterday slumped to 2-week lows on concern the European sovereign debt crisis may worsen: Dow Jones -1.10%, S&P 500 -1.13%, Nasdaq Composite -1.55%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern the region's debt crisis may worsen after Italian borrowing costs rose to a 14-year high and Spanish banks borrowed the most from the ECB in 14 months, (2) global economic growth concerns after the Ifo institute cut its 2011 and 2012 German GDP forecasts and China's Nov M2 money supply growth slowed to its slowest pace in 11 years, (3) weakness in energy producers after crude oil fell to a 2-1//2 week low when OPEC raised its output target for the first time in 3 years.
• Bullish factors included (1) the weaker than expected Nov import price index (+0.7% m/m and +9.9% y/y versus expectations of +1.0% m/m and +10.1% y/y), (2) a rally in financial stocks on reduced European debt concerns after the WSJ reported that Standard & Poor?s has not informed France about an imminent downgrade to the country's credit rating, and (3) the fall in the 10-year T-note yield to a 3-week low of 1.893%.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are unchanged. T-note prices yesterday rallied to a 2-1/2 month high on increased safe-haven demand after stocks slumped on European debt concerns along with strong demand for the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds: TYH2 +10.5, FVH2 -0.5, EDM2 -5.0. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after Italian borrowing costs rose to a 14-year high and Spanish banks borrowed the most from the ECB in 14 months, (2) global economic growth concerns after the Ifo institute cut its 2011 and 2012 German GDP forecasts and China's Nov M2 money supply growth slowed to its slowest pace in 11 years, (3) the weaker than expected Nov import price index (+0.7% m/m and +9.9% y/y versus expectations of +1.0% m/m and +10.1% y/y),(4) strong demand for the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.05, stronger than the 12-auction average of 2.66, and (5) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries when the S&P 500 tumbled to a 2-week low.
• The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.21 yen and the euro/dollar +0.18 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied to an 11-month high and finished stronger on increased safe-haven demand as European debt concerns sent the euro to an 11-month low against the dollar and sent stocks tumbling: Dollar Index +0.347, USDJPY +0.082, EURUSD -0.00537. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the increase in Italian borrowing costs after Italy sold 3 billion euros of 5-year bonds at a 14-year high of 6.47%, (2) funding concerns for Spanish banks after Spanish lenders borrowed an average 98 billion euros from the ECB in Nov, the most in 14 months and a sign that banks are struggling to access other sources of finance, (3) the action by the Ifo institute to lower its 2011 GDP forecast for Germany to 3.0% from a previous projection of 3.3% and to slash its 2012 GDP forecast for Germany to 0.4% from 2.3%, and (4) the increase in cost for European banks to borrow in dollars to a 2-week high after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro payments into dollars, widened to 147 bp below the euro interbank offered rate. A bearish factor was the euro positive comments from ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Weidmann who said he is "not a fan" of the ECB's bond buying program and that the idea that the ECB can solve the sovereign debt crisis by printing money must be laid to rest.
• Jan crude oil prices this morning are up +35 cents a barrel and Jan gasoline is +2.97 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices sold-off yesterday after OPEC raised its output target, the dollar rallied, and weekly DOE gasoline supplies rose to an 8-1/2 month high: CLF12 -$5.19, RBF12 -12.12. Jan crude fell to a 2-1/2 week low and Jan gasoline posted a 2-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities and (2) the action by OPEC to raise its output target for the first time in 3 years to 30 million barrels a day from 24.845 million barrels a day to accommodate increased output from Libya and Iraq, (3) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE gasoline inventories which climbed to an 8-1/2 month high (+3.82 million bbl to 218.8 million bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl), and (4) European debt concerns that drove the S&P 500 down to a 2-week low, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): ACN-Accenture PLC (BEST earnings consensus $0.94), FDX-FedEx (1.53), ADBE-Adobe Systems (0.60), DFS-Discover Financial Services (0.91), HEI-HEICO (0.41), PIR-Pier 1 Imports (0.20), MLHR-Herman Miller (0.41), RAD-Rite Aid (-0.11), SCHL-Scholastic (2.33), AIR-AAR Corp. (0.45), STEI-Stewart Enterprises (0.09).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 12/15/11
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +9,000 to 390,000, previous -23,000 to 381,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +50,000 to 3.633 million, previous 174,000 to 3.583 million.
0830 ET	Nov PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Oct -0.3% m/m and +5.9% y/y. Nov PPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Oct unchanged m/m and +2.8% y/y.
0830 ET	Nov Empire manufacturing index expected +2.4 to 3.0, Oct +9.1 to 0.6.
0830 ET	Q3 current account balance expected -$108.0 billion, Q2 -$118.0 billion.
0900 ET	Oct net long-term TIC flows expected +$62.5 billion, Sep +$68.6 billion.
0915 ET	Nov industrial production expected +0.1%, Oct +0.7%. Nov capacity utilization expected unchanged at 77.8%, Oct +0.5 to 77.8%.
1000 ET	Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +1.4 to 5.0, Oct -5.1 to 3.6.
1100 ET	Treasury announces amounts of 2-year T-notes (previous $35 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion to be auctioned Dec 19-21).
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $12 billion 5-year TIPS.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
France
0300 ET	Dec French PMI manufacturing, Nov -1.2 to 47.3. Dec PMI services, Nov +5.0 to 49.6.
Germany
0300 ET	German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers s speech to the German Parliament on the accords of the Dec 9 EU summit.
0330 ET	Dec German PMI manufacturing expected -0.4 to 47.5, Nov -1.2 to 47.9.
0330 ET	Dec German PMI services expected -0.3 to 50.0, Nov -0.3 to 50.3.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Dec Euro-Zone PMI composite expected -0.5 to 46.5, Nov +0.5 to 47.0.
0400 ET	ECB publishes monthly report for Dec.
0500 ET	Nov Euro-Zone CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +3.0% y/y, Oct +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
0500 ET	Nov Euro-Zone CPI core expected +1.6% y/y, Oct +1.6% y/y.
0500 ET	Q3 Euro-Zone employment, Q2 +0.3% q/q and +0.4 % y/y.
0625 ET	ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at INSM Foundation in Berlin on social market economy.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Nov U.K. retail sales ex auto fuel expected -0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Oct +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
0430 ET	Nov U.K. retail sales with auto fuel expected -0.3% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Oct +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
0600 ET	Dec U.K. CBI trends total orders expected -20, Nov -19.
Canada
0830 ET	Q3 Canada capacity utilization rate expected 79.0%, Q2 78.4%.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Alaska Air Group - ALK - Barchar Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Alaska Air Group (ALK)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Wed Dec 14, 6:52PM CST

Related Stocks

ALK - Alaska Air Group

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
ALK	73.22	+1.21	+1.68%

The "Chart of the Day" is Alaska Air Group (ALK), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Alaska Air on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $72.15 and closed up 2.37%. TrendSpotter issued a Buy signal on Dec 1 at $70.18. In recent news on the stock, Raymond James on Dec 6 initiated coverage on Alaska air with a Market Perform. Citigroup on Nov 22 reiterated its Buy rating on Alaska Air with a target of $81 and recommended using the pullback as a buying opportunity. Citigroup on Nov 29 called Alaska Air its favorite name in the space. Alaska Air, with a market cap of $2.5 billion, is a holding company that has two principal airline subsidiaries: Alaska Airlines, Inc. and regional Horizon Air Industries.



How we found the Chart of the Day:We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

• TrendSpotter: Buy
• Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
• Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
• Overall Average 96% Buy

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Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual

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Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

5 Great Small-Caps Stocks

This morning I used Barchart to screen the S&P 600 Small Cap stocks to see what's still moving:

Steward Information Systems (STC)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart short term buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 12.40% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.60
• Relative Strength Index 70.18
• Traded recently at 11.17 with a 50 day moving average of 9.89

Surmodics (SRDX)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart technical buy signals
• Trend Spotter buy signals
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 7 new highs and up 7.85% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.66
• Recently traded at 13.00 with a 50 day moving average of 11.00

Seneca Foods (SENEA)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 22.50
• Relative Strength Index 62.30
• Recently traded at 24.04 with a 50 day moving average of 20.97

Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 20.00% in the last month
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 3.84
• Relative Strength Index 69.80%
• Recently traded at 3.90 with a 50 day moving average of 3.36

SWS Group (SWS)

Barchart technical indicators:

• 88% Barchart technical buy signal
• Trend Spotter buy signal
• Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 9 new highs and up 33.01%
• Barchart computes a technical support level at 6.82
• Relative Strength Index 63.62%
• Recently traded at 6.90 with a 50 day moving average of 5.60

Spreadtrum Communications - SPRD - Deleted

This morning I deleted Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart short term technical sell signal
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 38.73% off its 1 month high
• Relative Strength Index 33.10% and falling

TravelCenters of America - TA - deleted

This morning I deleted TravelCenters of America (TA) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio of negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

• 100% Barchart short term sell signal
• Trend Spotter sell signal
• Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
• 17.15% off its one month high
• Relative Strength Index 34.90% and falling

Barchart Morning Call 12/14

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - Wed Dec 14, 7:00AM CST

Overnight Developments

• Global stocks this morning are lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.65% and Mar S&Ps down -3.10 point. The dollar index strengthened to an 11-month high and most commodities fell with gold at a 1-3/4 month low. Italy sold 3 billion euros of 5-year bonds, the maximum target for the auction, at 6.47%, up from 6.29% at a similar auction last month and the highest yield since 1997. The euro slipped to a fresh 11-month low against the dollar after data from the Bank of Spain showed that Spanish lenders borrowed an average 98 billion euros from the ECB in Nov, the most in 14 months and a sign that banks are struggling to access other sources of finance. European stocks were undercut after Oct Euro-Zone industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1/3% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and +2.1% y/y. Stocks and the euro also fell after Germany's Ifo institute lowered it 2011 GDP forecast for Germany this year to 3.0% from a previous projection of 3.3% and slashed its 2012 GDP forecast for Germany to 0.4% from 2.3%.
• Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.39%, China -1.01%, Australia -0.07%, South Korea -0.46%, India -0.76%. Asian stocks fell after the Fed refrained from providing additional stimulus and after Nov U.S. retail sales rose at the slowest pace in 5 months, clouding the earnings outlook for Asian exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low after money supply in China grew at its slowest pace in a decade, increasing the risk of a deeper slowdown. Nov China M2 money supply rose +12.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +12.8% y/y and the slowest pace of growth since May 2001. Losses in Japanese stocks were limited as the yen fell to a 1-week low against the dollar, a positive for Japanese exporters.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

• March S&Ps this morning are trading down -3.10 points. The US stock market yesterday rallied early as European debt concerns temporarily eased and energy producers gained on strength in crude oil but prices shed their gains and settled lower on disappointment the Fed did not provide further stimulus measures following the FOMC meeting: Dow Jones -0.55%, S&P 500 -0.87%, Nasdaq Composite -1.26%. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted 1-1/2 week lows and the Nasdaq fell to a 2-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. retail sales which rose at the slowest pace in 5 months (+0.2% and +0.2% less autos versus expectations of +0.5% and +0.4% less autos), (2) concern the European debt crisis may not be resolved anytime soon after Reuters reported that German Chancellor Merkel told German lawmakers that the 500 billion euro cap on Europe's planned permanent bailout fund will stay in place, which signals Germany is opposed to increasing the size of the bailout plan and shows division among Euro-Zone members on how to stem the region's debt crisis, (3) concern over the European banking system as default fears among European lenders have led them to rely on the ECB for their funding needs after ECB data showed Euro-Zone financial institutions borrowed 291.6 billion euros from the ECB in its weekly refinancing operation, the most in 2-1/2 years, and (4) disappointment the Fed refrained from providing additional stimulus measures following its 1-day FOMC meeting in which policy makers stated "The economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth."
• Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied sharply, (2) reduced European debt concerns after Spain sold 4.94 billion euros of 12-month and 18-months bills, larger than the maximum target of 4.25 billion euros the Treasury set for the sale, and (3) the unexpected increase in the Dec German ZEW survey of economic sentiment, which posted its first gain in 10 months and reduces concern that the European debt crisis will cripple the German economy, Europe's largest.

Today's Market Focus

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -2 ticks. T-note prices yesterday erased early losses after strong demand was seen at the Treasury's $21 billion 10-year auction and prices gained further and settled higher after stocks tumbled when the Fed refrained from providing additional stimulus at the conclusion of its 1-day FOMC meeting: TYH2 +9, FVH2 +0.2, EDM2 -1.5. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. retail sales that rose at the slowest pace in 5 months (+0.2% and +0.2% less autos versus expectations of +0.5% and +0.4% less autos), (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may not be resolved anytime soon after Reuters reported that German Chancellor Merkel rejected raising the upper limit of funding for another rescue mechanism, (3) stellar demand for the Treasury's $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.53, stronger than the 12-auction average of 3.09 and as indirect bidders took 61.9% of the auction, well above the 2-auction average of 47.1%, and (4) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries when stocks slumped after the Fed refrained from providing additional stimulus measures after the conclusion of the 1-day FOMC meeting. Bearish factors included (1) reduced European debt concerns after Dec ZEW German economic sentiment unexpectedly rose and Spain sold 4.94 billion euros of 12-month and 18-month bills, larger than the maximum target of 4.25 billion euros the Treasury set for the sale, and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds on Wed.
• The dollar index this morning is stronger and posted a fresh 11-month high with the dollar/yen +0.05 yen and the euro/dollar -0.51 cents. The dollar index yesterday shook off early weakness and rallied sharply to an 11-month high as the euro plunged on concern European leaders won't agree on ways to expand the region's rescue capabilities: Dollar Index +0.708, USDJPY +0.077, EURUSD -0.01508. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the slump in the euro to a 11-month low against the dollar after a report from Reuters that said German Chancellor Merkel told German lawmakers that the 500 billion euro cap on Europe's planned permanent bailout fund will stay in place, which signals Germany is opposed to increasing the size of the bailout plan and shows division among Euro-Zone members on how to stem the region's debt crisis, (2) comments from Fitch Ratings who said last week's EU summit "did little" to ease pressure on Euro-Zone sovereign bond ratings, (3) increased concern of default among European lenders after ECB data showed Euro-Zone financial institutions borrowed 291.6 billion euros from the ECB in its weekly refinancing operation, the most in 2-1/2 years, and (4) increased dollar demand from European banks after the 3-month cross-currency swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro payments into dollars, rose to a 2-week high of 128 bp below the euro interbank offered rate. Bearish factors included (1) euro positive comments from Slovakian bank President and ECB Council member Makuch who said the ECB's founding treaty prevents it from making large-scale bond purchases, (2) the unexpected increase in the Dec German ZEW survey of economic sentiment, which posted its first gain in 10 months and is euro positive, and (3) strong demand for a Spanish auction of 12-month and 18-month bills in which Spain sold 4.94 billion euros of the bills, larger than the maximum target of 4.25 billion euros the Treasury set for the sale.
• Jan crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.44 a barrel and Jan gasoline is -2.38 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday moved higher after German economic sentiment unexpectedly increased this month along with heightened Middle East tensions after Iran said its military is set to conduct drills for closing the Strait of Hormuz: CLF12 +$2.37, RBF12 +6.18. Jan gasoline posted 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpectedly increase in the Dec German ZEW survey of economic sentiment that posted its first increase in 10 months and is positive for economic growth and energy demand and (2) speculation global crude supplies could be disrupted after Iran's Fars news agency reported that Iran's military will hold drills to close the Strait of Hormuz, where according to the U.S. DOE about a sixth of global crude supplies flow each day. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities and (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. retail sales, which signals weakness in consumer spending that is negative for fuel demand and consumption. Expectations for the weekly inventory report from the DOE on Wed are for crude stockpiles to fall -2.5 million bbl, gasoline supplies to climb +1.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to rise +1.0 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to remain unchanged at 87.7%.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): JOY-Joy Global (BEST earnings consensus $1.86), PAY-VeriFone Systems (0.51), NDSN-Nordson (0.81), INXN-InterXion Holding NV (0.12), APOG-Apogee Enterprises (0.10), NWPX-Northwest Pipe (0.44), SYNO-Synovis Life Technologies (0.17).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 12/14/11
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +12.8% with purchase mortgage sub-index +8.3% and refinancing sub-index +15.3%.
0830 ET	Nov import price index expected +1.0% m/m and +10.1% y/y, Oct -0.6% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
0830 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks at the Midtown Alliance annual meeting in Atlanta.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
n/a	OPEC meets in Vienna.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Nov U.K. jobless claims change expected +13,700, Oct +5,300. Nov claimant count rate expected 5.1%, Oct 5.0%.
0430 ET	Oct U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Sep +2.3% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Oct U.K. avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Sep +1.7% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET	Oct U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected 8.3% 3-months, Sep 8.3% 3-months.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Oct Euro-Zone industrial production expected unchanged m/m and +2.1% y/y, Sep -1.9% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
Canada
0830 ET	Nov Canada leading indicators expected +0.3% m/m, Oct +0.2% m/m.
0830 ET	Oct Canada manufacturing sales expected -0.6% m/m, Sep +2.6% m/m.
Japan
1850 ET	Q4 Japan Tankan large manufacturers index expected -2, Q3 +2. Q4 Tankan non-manufacturing index expected +1, Q3 +1.
CHI
2130 ET	Dec China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, Nov 48.0.

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